Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
Not necessarily, it validates against random or paranoid cop. Also, you're guilty. There's no other guilty reads from any cops anywhere. If this works, the town gets a confirmed cop, and potentially two mafia dead. Right now, you're just making your guilt all the more apparent.
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
I'm only guilty if you believe he's a cop and he's telling the truth. Those are big IFs, especially since island B residents are more likely to be pirates since none of have been found there so far. Don't forget I voted to lynch our only pirate kill thus far.Originally Posted by Holypie
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
I still think that Niernen is our best bet, even with Corn and Meta's information. He really hasn't helped much anyways...
As for Island B and the mafia, I started off thinking the mafia was Holypie because all of his votes have ended in an innocent's death including the ones in the night. Corn's information has made me more suspicious of him than anything. Right now Meta is probably dead, because he would have been locked in by the mafia. The only reason I think that Meta is innocent is because if the mafia wanted him dead it would be easy to lock a 3/1 right now. Just some things to think about.
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
Okay then, I'm not going to ask you to reveal your role, but please tell me, do you believe that your ability is worth more than a potential pirafia kill AS WELL AS a potential confirmed cop? If you do, then please by all means, save your own skin. Just know that it means the pirafia will probably win. Unless, you are a pirafia, which I seriously believe. Also really only the first if matters because the second one is a direct consequence of that. But I digress. It doesn't really matter if no pirafia have been found on island B so far? It's been mentioned several times that the pirafia might be stacking to one island in order to cap the potential pirafia deaths to one per day and guaranteeing an innocent lynch.
Seriously guys? Just because Niernen isn't helpful doesn't mean that you IGNORE A COP'S INVESTIGATION. Also can you explain what you mean by my votes ending in an innocent's death in the night?
I'm putting everything on the line for this, because I think it's right. Besides, it's very unusual for a pirafia to counterclaim a cop. The much more common scenario is that a pirafia is backed into a corner and comes out as a cop as a last ditch effort to live for a while longer, and then the real cop counterclaims. This isn't all the time, but I think this is what's going on now. If you think I'm suspicious because I've suddenly been posting a whole lot more, it's because I'm having a lot of fun and scenarios like this are why I play mafia. I think this is great but you guys should really kill VerrKol. Damn if I'm wrong I'm going to look so guilty.
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
Except this late in the game we can't afford kill off any innocents because the pirates could very quickly reach a majority. Killing either Corn or Meta confirms the other is a cop unless you think they are both mafia and up to some serious shenanigans? The pirates can't be stacking on island A because no one has switched islands since day 1! If we make the basic assumption that there are 4 pirates and that they began evenly distributed across both islands, there is 1 more on A and 2 on B. It's possible there are fewer, but I consider it highly suspect that you seem to think there is one or none on B. You are still ignoring that Polantaris and I are the only two to vote for a confirmed Pirate. Why would a pirate lynch another pirate with only 2 votes?
You're ignoring a cop's investigation all by yourself. You ignore that Meta believes Corn is the pirate, but since he says you're innocent he must be the legit cop!
You're logic is horribly inconsistent and I no longer believe you are a mere survivor.
Let's add up the facts.
1. You have voted to lynch several innocents
2. You back the "cop" that says you're innocent
3. You finger one of 2 people who voted to lynch a pirate
1+2+3 = Holypie is a pirate likely backed by Corn (and maybe Niernen since he's defending him)
I want to point out some thoughts I've been having.
1) If we are to believe both Corn and Meta, we had a total of three Investigators. Sega was an Investigator (who was lynched), and now both Corn and Meta claim to be investigators.
Sega was a special Investigator, that could only investigate someone who had switched islands, while Corn claims to be an Investigator that can only investigate when they do not vote, and Meta just claims to be a flat out investigator.
What seems odd here? The fact that, if both Corn and Meta are not liars, we have three Investigators? Why does that seem odd to me? It sounds way too high, I guarantee one of them is a liar.
2) When Zelkova was pointed out (by me), he immediately jumped on VerrKol. While I have nothing against VerrKol, we should remember that a pirate scheme could be to intentionally lay blame on someone else to make them appear innocent. I'm not saying that this is the truth, but it is certainly a possibility, albeit a small one. Zelkova could have felt ousted, and intentionally set up a scheme to make VerrKol appear innocent so that they could win. Once again, I have nothing against VerrKol, but I'd probably do that myself if I were mafia and realized that I was screwed.
3) To be completely frank, all of Niernen's posts have been completely useless. And when brought up to blame, simply said, "Oh I couldn't do anything to convince you!" Doesn't that sound just like how Zelkova responded? Also, throwing in the towel almost immediately when there was over 24 hours left to convince us against it? Weird, right?
4) @Holypie; We have conflicting cop stories here.
Meta says that Corn is bad.
Corn says VerrKol is bad.
If Corn is good, Meta is bad and VerrKol is bad. If Meta is good, Corn is bad and VerrKol is good. They cannot be both right, as one claims the other is bad. Which do you think it is? Personally, I think Corn is bad. Why? Because we already had an Investigator with a qualifier for investigating. Having two would be weird, as there's usually one flat out Investigator that has no restrictions (aside from interventions). This would imply towards Meta over Corn, which means Corn is bad and VerrKol is good. Corn also tried to make excuses for his ability, instead of just pretending to forget to vote. Plenty of people have forgotten to vote, so why did Corn feel the need to create a precedent for his Investigating abilities unless he intended to claim to be good all along, but not really be? Why the shenanigans?
Not only that, but saying both Meta and VerrKol is bad at once would imply that nearly all of the mafia has been revealed at once. Convenient, isn't it?
Above even that, Corn replies second in the day, saying that he would post his thoughts later? Why? Except to gauge the field and intentionally start getting people against each other? I believe Corn is Mafia, and I believe you should be against him.
Either way, even if we're wrong, one of those two are Mafia, which means that we get a confirmed kill either way, it just might take an extra day.
5) My Conclusions:
Niernen and Corn are both bad. I think they should both be voted for, and since they are on opposing islands, it's possible to get both.
If Corn is good, then we confirm Meta is bad and can get him next.
If Niernen is good, he wasn't contributing anything anyway so we didn't lose that much, because at this rate we're likely to vote off the wrong person anyway.
I'm also iffy on you, Holypie, considering your ignorance towards Meta's information. Just because Meta didn't say you were good doesn't mean you aren't, but your ignoring of the information makes you more suspicious.
Oh and...
6) Even if Corn is right and we kill him, he's probably tonight's target anyway. If he's not, one of the more investigative players is. Either way, we're going to incur some serious losses tonight one way or the other.
Last edited by SaptaZapta; 2014-06-01 at 05:44 AM.
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
Agreed with about 99% of everything you said. You explained what I was getting at much better than me. Except the bits where I could be a pirate of course :P
Either Holypie is pirate or seriously incompetent.
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
Polantaris basically explained it best, but lets go down the list.
ChaoticCJ - I am a survivor which was pretty obvious when I voted for Zelkova.
Niernen - As Polantaris explained, has not been all to helpful. By not joining the discussion is a threat that is left unchecked.
Olsi - Possible pirate mafia but with much less exposure and a good vote record it doesn't seem so.
Polantaris - Voted for Zelkova, which pretty much confirms survivor.
VerrKol - Same with Zelkova, even if pirate, much less of a threat than Niernen.
Corn - The cop thing was a total surprise. I thought he was innocent till he said that.
HolyPie - Voted for TheBirds (Died Night 1), ImagineAll, and Sega. All survivor, so your voting record isn't something to be proud of.
MetaSeraphim - The cop thing was again a surprise. In all honesty with Corn it is hard to tell.
xBTAx - With all of island B it is really hard to tell...
If I had to guess, right now the mafia would be Niernen, Corn, and xBTAx.
__________________________
Okay wait I had more explanation but a quick question...
You said that we would "IGNORE A COP'S INVESTIGATION" and go after Niernen. Corn's same investigation found Meta innocent...but you voted from him...which doesn't make sense...it would actually make much more sense to go after BTA. Even Corn seems like a better target than Meta since you don't want to "IGNORE A COP'S INVESTIGATION." Right? Did I miss something?
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
Okay 1, and 3, just because I have voted for innocents (TheBirds was almost totally silent, as were ImagineAll and Sega, and silence seemed to be the primary basis for voting. Remember that MasPan decided to vote for Sega, and he was innocent. y0shi also voted for ImagineAll, he was innocent), and you have voted for a pirate (mafia bussing is a very common technique, aka Zelkova is about to die and he's like well pomegranate, and tells you to vote for him (apparently mafia in this game has unrestricted communication) which he hopes will clear your name (which seems likely as you're seriously leaning on this as basically your only defense)). I'm backing the cop who says I'm innocent because I know I'm innocent and that's a data point in his favour from my point of view.
Doesn't it seem more likely for there to be 2 handicapped cops (can only investigate people who change islands, and can only investigate people when not voting) than one handicapped cop and a full cop? Additionally, @MetaSeraphim hasn't posted at all today aside from his cop claim. This (amongst other factors) leads me to believe that Corn is the true cop.
This is mafia bussing (throwing under the bus), and is very common.
Maybe he just doesn't feel like playing, which isn't really too surprising given his record over the past couple of days, also being your primary reason to lynch him.
Okay I mentioned this previously, but having two "qualified" investigators makes more sense to me from a balancing perspective than a full out cop and a fairly weak cop. This is because the investigator is basically the most powerful town role, having a full investigator (standard) on top of a partial investigator who can give the town any information at all would be very unbalanced in favour of the town. Exactly, why would Corn make excuses as to not being able to vote IN THE BEGINNING of the day, rather than at the end saying "Oh crap I forgot to vote" or just not posting at all if that's the case. It makes even less sense for a mafia to say "Welp, I'm not going to vote for the entire game to make the village believe that I'm a gimped cop huehuehuehuehue". Realize that this would have been the beginning of the game before Sega had died.
Corn won't die tonight, I can guarantee that. Me on the other hand, well, we'll see.
For the last time, just because you've voted for a mafia doesn't make you clear automatically! Here's an article on the thing http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Bussing
Silent people aren't really a "threat" at this point in time when we have much bigger fish to fry. Hell you're still going after silent people (the reasons I voted the people I did). Don't forget (as you are all conveniently doing), VerrKol, you have voted with Zelkova to lynch Words, who was innocent.
Okay I'm going to ask again one last time, what are all of your full names? I am Oliver Ollie.
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
So you get a free pass by screaming "look guys, we killed a pirate, obviously we are good!"
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
You arent giving a better argument. People are writing walls of text and you type one sentence, at the moment it seems like holypie is the one defending you instead of yourself.
Polantaris said it well, I believe we on Island A are at a split between verrkol and niernen, the worst case scenario is that niernen is innocent and we kill verrkol the next night right? As for Island B you guys are currently a mess. I dont really trust anyone on that island, but i guess we will find out by the end of today who the pirafia members are.
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
He has a point though, and I seriously think you should be lynching VerrKol. Even without Corn's investigation, he's just really suspicious what with voting with Zelkova to kill Words, and then bussing Zelkova.
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
Then he should opt out, like Dusk did. We have subs for a reason. Dusk opted out in the Discussion thread, there's no reason Niernen can't.
I disagree. Having two cops that are limited severely weakens the Survivors, and considering they only get so many days having them weakened is just making the game that much easier for the Pirafia to win, especially since Sega's ability was VERY limiting. It would have been useless for 90% of the game anyway since people only moved on the first day. There's no guarantee people will move, and thus that ability is far too situation based to be part of the full Investigation team, in my opinion. A very possible situation is the one we have here, and therefore Sega wouldn't even be able to do anything.
Are you trying to imply that you are the Doctor?
Silent people can very clearly be a threat. If I didn't call out Zelkova, I don't think he would have gotten lynched, because only one other person voted for him. If VerrKol is part of a bussing play, that just means that there would be even more pirafia left, because the bussing would have never occurred in the first place. The simple fact of the matter is that there's more than 2 pirafia, and as such there's no reason to be lynching VerrKol right now when there are far more suspicious candidates.
Yes, Bussing happens, but considering there's more than a few other people who are acting suspiciously, it's not an important fact right now. In a day, sure, but right now there's far worse going on, like the dual cop issue, both of which are on Island B so you need to figure that out. One of those two are pirafia, and in my opinion Corn has more against him than Meta does. I can do nothing but offer my opinion, which you're clearly not going to take, so really why bother more than this while I'm not on that island?
Lucy Lola. I support the request for everyone to submit their names.
Have to go to bed now, I won't be back before the end of the day, and I'm not changing my vote, so if everyone decides Niernen is not worth the lynch, then figure out who is quickly.
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
I can't speak for him, I'm just stating possibilities.
What? Corn is 90% of a normal cop, and having Sega gives the possibility of even more information, even if it doesn't play out. There are some roles that basically force island changes anyway, like those of Words and TheBirds. How does having more cops weaken the town? The town usually does fine with a single cop, there is no "investigation team". From a balancing point of view it would be crazy to introduce even a minor investigative role with no nerfs.
Silent people are a good target early in the game but now there's tons of information out there to make a solid lynch based on scumhunting and cop information. If I were to pick between Niernen (just quiet basically) and VerrKol (voted with a pirafia, bussed that same pirafia, and is accused of being pirafia by a potential cop), I think the choice is pretty obvious.
Yes, we're going to figure that out. We're getting quite close to lylo (lynch or lose) and mylo (mislynch and lose) which, while slightly complicated by the islands system, means that waiting to see if Corn is right is going to let VerrKol live another day. Additionally, lynching VerrKol will give us more information about Corn's cop status. Can you do a comparison between Corn and Meta? I don't see why he's more suspicious. I'm considering your opinion, I just don't think you're right about Niernen and VerrKol.
I'm telling you, please vote for VerrKol.
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
Polantris, can you tell me why you think VerrKol is innocent?
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
Okay this is the part that makes me think you are a pirate, although most evidence says you are not. IF you do think Corn is the true cop why are you voting MetaSeraphim? Corn specifically said he was innocent. It would actually make much more sense to go after xBTAx.
[Jr. Event Coordinator]
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
Honestly speaking I'm thinking Meta is a Godfather (appears innocent on checks), because it doesn't make sense at all that he's innocent, unless maybe I'm insane.
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
I had considered that you were insane which would mean that both Meta and Holypie are pirates. This information seems correct till you take into account that Holypie is taking on Meta, while talking about bussing. While this is entirely possible, it seems really unlikely, because it would only leave him confirmed as pirate.
I REALLY doubt that Meta is the Godfather, since Zelkova had that role.
[Jr. Event Coordinator]
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
Quite frankly I never played a game with two (or three..?) cops either.
Re: Two Island Mafia - Day 3
Again, my name is Gabriela Gemma.
@ChaoticCJ; You may have voted for Zelkova previously, but you were not one of the people who lynched him. That's a wash at best.
@Holypie; Bussing only really makes sense when the pirafia is conclusively outed. Yes Zelkova looked suspicious as pineapple, but allow me to play devil's advocate for a moment. Let's pretend I'm a pirate and review the voting record for that day.
Zelkova had received only 1 vote from Polantaris. If I were a pirate I could have A) voted for someone else with Zelkova or B) voted No Lynch with CJ to save him. A) would obviously be suicidal for both but B) would have theoretically saved a pirafia merely by opting not to lynch. I had a swing vote here since Olsi and Niernen didn't bother to vote at all. Does it seem logical for a pirafia to vote off another when they could easily be saved? Yes it could theoretically be bussing, but that hardly makes any sense given the small margin and number of abstentions.
You may call it heavily relying on my vote record, but I call it using the only concrete information we have available. What exactly would you expect a survivor to do in my situation?
I could reiterate again that I did not intend to get Words lynched that day, but you can reread those posts yourself and judge since I can't really offer any proof.
I really can't figure out why you've become fixated on me because your logic is all over the place.
@Niernen; How about you actually give us some compelling reasons to keep you alive or at give us a better candidate?
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