An undiscussed topic about Maker

[Eos]

http://www.southperry.net/forums/sho...&postcount=273

Hmm.
I still lean towards my more conservative figures due to the extreme number that will be hitting the market early on the sheer desperation for all those individuals to be making any profit after soaking several dozen/hundred mil into refining.

Course wouldn't be the first time the Maple economy made absolutely no sense. Pudding hats, i'm looking at you.

[Firehuntah]

http://www.southperry.net/forums/sho...&postcount=273

And that's just KMS prices, I can't even imagine prices here in GMS, especially in Scania. ;x Might be more than it's in KMS. In Scania it probably will be.
But then again, diamonds are easier to get here because of APQ, so it might just be the same price anyway, or a bit lower. :P
I've been getting alot of diamonds aswell lately, but I think I'll just sell them in their current form, not going to upgrade. Knowing my luck, I probably won't get many high grade diamonds, so yeah. >_>

[ChaosCorpse]

Any chance you guys could do your formula things for me to see if I have enough to reach my dream ASAP?

Refined Str: 70 - Goal 1 High Grade
Refined Dex: 185 - Goal 4 High Grade
Refined Topaz: 200 - Goal 4 High Grade
Refined Aquamarine: 100 - Goal 1-3 High Grade
Potentially Opal: 100 - Goal 2 High Grade

With 70 Mil mesos, on average, can I attain these goals?

[IllegallySane]

Thank you for your input, Ohmer. Stay around - we'd love to hear what it's like in other versions.

Anyway, I've created a simulator in python to find the average amount of profit (sales - costs) considering my current situation.

I evaluated the following questions:
1. How much meso can be made by upgrading everything to HQ?
2. Upgrade MQ to HQ, but not LQ to MQ.
3. How much meso can be made by upgrading LQ to MQ, but not MQ to HQ?
4. How much meso can be made by doing no upgrades at all?

Here were my results:
1. Upgrade everything to HQ: 12.5b
2. Upgrade MQ to HQ, but not LQ to MQ: 13.5b
3. Upgrade LQ to MQ, but not MQ to HQ: 15.5b
4. No upgrades: 15.8b

There are several things to consider here:
1. It's probably harder to sell 1 WATK diamonds since people want the better quality 2 WATK ones. So that makes the upgrade more worthwhile since it will decrease the amount of time the item is stuck in inventory. This alone makes #3 the best option.
2. The amount of time invested into upgrading diamonds is large. Through my calculations, It will take me nearly 6 hours of constant appraising, and then I have to upgrade! So I have to manage my time wisely.

Here's the script I used: (Lemme know if I made any mistakes)

Spoiler

COST_TO_APPRAISE = 100000
COST_TO_UP_MQ = 300000
COST_TO_UP_HQ = 500000

NUM_DIAMONDS = 4456

PROB_APPRAISE_LQ = 0.7
PROB_APPRAISE_MQ = 0.95
PROB_APPRAISE_HQ = 1

PROB_TO_UP_MQ_LQ = 0.4
PROB_TO_UP_MQ_MQ = 1

PROB_TO_UP_HQ_MQ = 0.7
PROB_TO_UP_HQ_HQ = 1

#Common variables used
HighQual = 0
MidQual = 0
LowQual = 0
cost = 0
profit = 0

#Possible sale prices
SALE_HQ = 40000000 #40m
SALE_MQ = 5000000 #5m
SALE_LQ = 500000 #500k

#Amount of passes through the guessing function
NUM_PASSES = 1000
import random

for x in range(NUM_PASSES):
    #Begin appraising all of the diamonds
    for i in range(NUM_DIAMONDS):
        cost += COST_TO_APPRAISE
        prob = random.random()
        if prob > PROB_APPRAISE_MQ:
            HighQual += 1
        elif prob > PROB_APPRAISE_LQ:
            MidQual += 1
        else:
            LowQual += 1

    #LQ --> MQ
    while LowQual >= 10:
        cost += COST_TO_UP_MQ
        prob = random.random()
        if prob > PROB_TO_UP_MQ_LQ:
            LowQual -= 10
            MidQual += 1
        else:
            LowQual -= 1

    #MQ --> HQ
    while MidQual >= 10:
        cost += COST_TO_UP_HQ
        prob = random.random()
        if prob > PROB_TO_UP_HQ_MQ:
            MidQual -= 10
            HighQual += 1
        else:
            MidQual -= 1

#Pretty printer to make big numbers easier to read
def Thousands(num):
    num = str(num)
    thousand = ''
    for i in range(len(num)):
        if i % 3 == 0 and i != 0:
            thousand = ',' + thousand
        thousand = num[-1-i] + thousand
    return thousand

#Calculate averages
HighQual /= NUM_PASSES
MidQual /= NUM_PASSES
LowQual /= NUM_PASSES
cost /= NUM_PASSES

#Calculate profit (sales - costs)
profit = HighQual * SALE_HQ
profit += (MidQual * SALE_MQ)
profit += (LowQual * SALE_LQ)
profit -= cost

#Output
print(HighQual, MidQual, LowQual, Thousands(cost))
print(Thousands(profit))

Aw crap. 40m for a high grade? There's is NO way I'm paying that much for my needed HQ crystals. Rather than make a new thread I'll just ask it here:

1. For a Buccaneer, what are the best monsters to farm up DEX, Wisdom, Diamond and Opal ores? I ask for these because I require nothing else for my pirate. DEX for obvious reasons (accuracy, to be able to equip higher level equipment as DEXless, and avoid is always nice). Wisdom for an easy 10 INT on crafted shoes and gloves. Diamonds to mass create MQs to hope to scroll a 100 knuckle. Opals for the avoid when the equipment has two slots.

[holyforest]

Holy crap. The ore prices are going to skyrocket through the roof. All the ore sellers are going to be very rich very fast.

[Icedfire]

Holy crap. The ore prices are going to skyrocket through the roof. All the ore sellers are going to be very rich very fast.

hint: buy them out.

[Morgana]

Well... Apparently I need a lot more Wisdom crystals just to get my shoes and gloves HQ'ed... T_T

On the bright side, if I got the shoes early on and I was hard up for money, I could sell 'em for a pretty penny for all the lazy people.

Upgrading all those jewels gives me something to do while I'm chatting in town, I guess!

Also, I'm actually liking the odds for jewels, not crystals... My dexless page could really use some high-grade garnets on her shoes, and this may make crafting a top/bottom set for her more viable as an alternative to her current overall. I'm still pretty upset that I NPC'ed some of the garnets I got from training at Wraiths for 25 levels...

@IllegallySane: Diamond ores are pretty rare as a drop, so I would just try to buy refined ones off of APQ'ers if you can't APQ yourself. For the others, I'd check Hidden Street and pick a monster with good spawn in a map where you can murder. I heard Windraiders spam DEX crystals, though. (Poor people training on them right after Maker comes out! )

Ex: Opal

[Eos]

Any chance you guys could do your formula things for me to see if I have enough to reach my dream ASAP?

Refined Str: 70 - Goal 1 High Grade
Refined Dex: 185 - Goal 4 High Grade
Refined Topaz: 200 - Goal 4 High Grade
Refined Aquamarine: 100 - Goal 1-3 High Grade
Potentially Opal: 100 - Goal 2 High Grade

With 70 Mil mesos, on average, can I attain these goals?

Simulation indicates these are attainable goals w/ approximately 60% chance to achieve all goals or an ~86% chance overall of accomplishing.

Spoiler

Simulation 1 - 5/6 goals met.

Label	Phase	High	Mid	Low	Cost	Goal Met
Str	Appraisal	1	3	21	2,500,000	TRUE
Dex	Appraisal	1	45	139	18,500,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Lows	1	56	6	10,200,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Mids	3	9	6	14,500,000	FALSE
Topaz	Appraisal	4	12	45	6,100,000	TRUE
Aquamarine	Appraisal	3	13	53	6,900,000	TRUE
Opal	Appraisal	2	7	20	2,900,000	TRUE
Total Cost					61,600,000

Simulation 2 - 4/6 Goals Met

Label	Phase	High	Mid	Low	Cost	Goal Met
Str	Appraisal	0	10	60	7,000,000	FALSE
Str	Upgrading Lows	0	14	7	5,100,000	FALSE
Str	Upgrading Mids	0	9	7	2,500,000	FALSE
Dex	Appraisal	2	45	138	18,500,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Lows	2	56	1	11,400,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Mids	4	30	1	800,000	TRUE
Topaz	Appraisal	4	15	107	12,600,000	TRUE
Aquamarine	Appraisal	3	21	66	9,000,000	TRUE
Total Cost					66,900,000

Simulation 3 - 5/6 Goals met - Price went over, marginally.

Label	Phase	High	Mid	Low	Cost	Goal Met
Str	Appraisal	0	6	64	7,000,000	FALSE
Str	Upgrading Lows	0	12	0	3,000,000	FALSE
Str	Upgrading Mids	1	2	0	100,000	TRUE
Dex	Appraisal	2	35	148	18,500,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Lows	2	46	1	14,400,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Mids	4	25	1	300,000	TRUE
Topaz	Appraisal	4	30	124	15,800,000	TRUE
Aquamarine	Appraisal	3	5	29	3,700,000	TRUE
Opal	Appraisal	2	13	64	7,900,000	TRUE
Total Cost					70,700,000

Simulation 4 - All goals met.

Label	Phase	High	Mid	Low	Cost	Goal Met
Str	Appraisal	1	13	25	3,900,000	TRUE
Dex	Appraisal	2	46	137	18,500,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Lows	2	58	9	6,000,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Mids	4	37	9	300,000	TRUE
Topaz	Appraisal	4	12	32	4,800,000	TRUE
Aquamarine	Appraisal	3	13	41	5,700,000	TRUE
Opal	Appraisal	2	6	13	2,100,000	TRUE
Total Cost					41,300,000

Simulation 5 - All goals met

Label	Phase	High	Mid	Low	Cost	Goal Met
Str	Appraisal	0	15	55	7,000,000	FALSE
Str	Upgrading Lows	0	20	3	2,100,000	FALSE
Str	Upgrading Mids	1	8	3	300,000	TRUE
Dex	Appraisal	2	50	133	18,500,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Lows	2	60	8	10,500,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Mids	4	34	8	800,000	TRUE
Topaz	Appraisal	4	25	88	11,700,000	TRUE
Aquamarine	Appraisal	3	18	45	6,600,000	TRUE
Opal	Appraisal	2	6	13	2,100,000	TRUE
Total Cost					59,600,000

[Schrono]

Aw crap. 40m for a high grade? There's is NO way I'm paying that much for my needed HQ crystals. Rather than make a new thread I'll just ask it here:

1. For a Buccaneer, what are the best monsters to farm up DEX, Wisdom, Diamond and Opal ores? I ask for these because I require nothing else for my pirate. DEX for obvious reasons (accuracy, to be able to equip higher level equipment as DEXless, and avoid is always nice). Wisdom for an easy 10 INT on crafted shoes and gloves. Diamonds to mass create MQs to hope to scroll a 100 knuckle. Opals for the avoid when the equipment has two slots.

Going off of what hidden-street says for the monsters that drop dex ores,I'd assume these monsters are best for each of those types:

Dex Crystal ores:Samiho, Fly Eye, Straw Target Dummy, Meercat, Scorpion, Grizzly, Windraider, Birk, Dual Birk, Blue Kentaurus, Red Wyverns.

Wisdom Crystal Ores: Jr. Lioner, Jr. Grupin, Bloctopus, Moon Bunny, Lioner, (potentially) Site, Captain, Wolf Spider, Blood Haf, Risell Squid, Skelegon.

Opal Ore: Jr. Wraith, Bloctopus, Fly Eye, Grizzly, Samiho, Sage Cat, Risell Squid, Jr. Newtie.

Diamond Ores: Drum Bunny, Jr. Lioner, Panda, Grizzly, Selkie Jr., Homun (?), Blood Haf


Diamonds: Amoria Party Quest Bonus.

These are based on my own knowledge of these maps, and the spawn of the mobs in question. It's not based on the rate at which they drop the ores. Some maps are also likely more suited to an ultimate using Magician than a Buccaneer (Blood Hafs are one example of this, as are Red Wyverns). They may not all work for you, but hopefully this will help you somewhat.

[Nikkey]

Thank you for your input, Ohmer. Stay around - we'd love to hear what it's like in other versions.

Anyway, I've created a simulator in python to find the average amount of profit (sales - costs) considering my current situation.

I evaluated the following questions:
1. How much meso can be made by upgrading everything to HQ?
2. Upgrade MQ to HQ, but not LQ to MQ.
3. How much meso can be made by upgrading LQ to MQ, but not MQ to HQ?
4. How much meso can be made by doing no upgrades at all?

Here were my results:
1. Upgrade everything to HQ: 12.5b
2. Upgrade MQ to HQ, but not LQ to MQ: 13.5b
3. Upgrade LQ to MQ, but not MQ to HQ: 15.5b
4. No upgrades: 15.8b

There are several things to consider here:
1. It's probably harder to sell 1 WATK diamonds since people want the better quality 2 WATK ones. So that makes the upgrade more worthwhile since it will decrease the amount of time the item is stuck in inventory. This alone makes #3 the best option.
2. The amount of time invested into upgrading diamonds is large. Through my calculations, It will take me nearly 6 hours of constant appraising, and then I have to upgrade! So I have to manage my time wisely.

Here's the script I used: (Lemme know if I made any mistakes)

Spoiler

COST_TO_APPRAISE = 100000
COST_TO_UP_MQ = 300000
COST_TO_UP_HQ = 500000

NUM_DIAMONDS = 4456

PROB_APPRAISE_LQ = 0.7
PROB_APPRAISE_MQ = 0.95
PROB_APPRAISE_HQ = 1

PROB_TO_UP_MQ_LQ = 0.4
PROB_TO_UP_MQ_MQ = 1

PROB_TO_UP_HQ_MQ = 0.7
PROB_TO_UP_HQ_HQ = 1

#Common variables used
HighQual = 0
MidQual = 0
LowQual = 0
cost = 0
profit = 0

#Possible sale prices
SALE_HQ = 40000000 #40m
SALE_MQ = 5000000 #5m
SALE_LQ = 500000 #500k

#Amount of passes through the guessing function
NUM_PASSES = 1000
import random

for x in range(NUM_PASSES):
    #Begin appraising all of the diamonds
    for i in range(NUM_DIAMONDS):
        cost += COST_TO_APPRAISE
        prob = random.random()
        if prob > PROB_APPRAISE_MQ:
            HighQual += 1
        elif prob > PROB_APPRAISE_LQ:
            MidQual += 1
        else:
            LowQual += 1

    #LQ --> MQ
    while LowQual >= 10:
        cost += COST_TO_UP_MQ
        prob = random.random()
        if prob > PROB_TO_UP_MQ_LQ:
            LowQual -= 10
            MidQual += 1
        else:
            LowQual -= 1

    #MQ --> HQ
    while MidQual >= 10:
        cost += COST_TO_UP_HQ
        prob = random.random()
        if prob > PROB_TO_UP_HQ_MQ:
            MidQual -= 10
            HighQual += 1
        else:
            MidQual -= 1

#Pretty printer to make big numbers easier to read
def Thousands(num):
    num = str(num)
    thousand = ''
    for i in range(len(num)):
        if i % 3 == 0 and i != 0:
            thousand = ',' + thousand
        thousand = num[-1-i] + thousand
    return thousand

#Calculate averages
HighQual /= NUM_PASSES
MidQual /= NUM_PASSES
LowQual /= NUM_PASSES
cost /= NUM_PASSES

#Calculate profit (sales - costs)
profit = HighQual * SALE_HQ
profit += (MidQual * SALE_MQ)
profit += (LowQual * SALE_LQ)
profit -= cost

#Output
print(HighQual, MidQual, LowQual, Thousands(cost))
print(Thousands(profit))

Spoiler

for x in range(NUM_PASSES):
    #Begin appraising all of the diamonds
	cost = COST_TO_APPRAISE * NUM_DIAMONDS ## Faster
    for i in range(NUM_DIAMONDS):
        prob = random.random()
        if prob > PROB_APPRAISE_MQ:
            HighQual += 1
        elif prob > PROB_APPRAISE_LQ:
            MidQual += 1
        else:
            LowQual += 1

    #LQ --> MQ
    while LowQual >= 10:
        cost += COST_TO_UP_MQ
        prob = random.random()
        if prob > PROB_TO_UP_MQ_LQ:
            LowQual -= 10
            MidQual += 1
        else:
            LowQual -= 1

    #MQ --> HQ
    while MidQual >= 10:
        cost += COST_TO_UP_HQ
        prob = random.random()
        if prob > PROB_TO_UP_HQ_MQ:
            MidQual -= 10
            HighQual += 1
        else:
            MidQual -= 1

Nothing big.

[IllegallySane]

Going off of what hidden-street says for the monsters that drop dex ores,I'd assume these monsters are best for each of those types:

Dex Crystal ores:Samiho, Fly Eye, Straw Target Dummy, Meercat, Scorpion, Grizzly, Windraider, Birk, Dual Birk, Blue Kentaurus, Red Wyverns.

Wisdom Crystal Ores: Jr. Lioner, Jr. Grupin, Bloctopus, Moon Bunny, Lioner, (potentially) Site, Captain, Wolf Spider, Blood Haf, Risell Squid, Skelegon.

Opal Ore: Jr. Wraith, Bloctopus, Fly Eye, Grizzly, Samiho, Sage Cat, Risell Squid, Jr. Newtie.

Diamond Ores: Drum Bunny, Jr. Lioner, Panda, Grizzly, Selkie Jr., Homun (?), Blood Haf


Diamonds: Amoria Party Quest Bonus.

These are based on my own knowledge of these maps, and the spawn of the mobs in question. It's not based on the rate at which they drop the ores. Some maps are also likely more suited to an ultimate using Magician than a Buccaneer (Blood Hafs are one example of this, as are Red Wyverns). They may not all work for you, but hopefully this will help you somewhat.

Ooo, I assume that is in order of preferred mobs? It does help a lot then. Thank you.

Looking at all this I am probably going to go in this order:

Pure drop:
DEX: Samiho (If I feel like camping Nine-tails)/STD (because it's one flat map)
WIS: Site (one small map = happy melee), Skelegons (when training)
Opal: Jr. Wraith
Diamond: Drum Bunnies (and hope for a Chaos scroll as well)

Mix:
DEX/Opal: Samiho

[Nikkey]

Ooo, I assume that is in order of preferred mobs? It does help a lot then. Thank you.

Looking at all this I am probably going to go in this order:

Pure drop:
DEX: Samiho (If I feel like camping Nine-tails)/STD (because it's one flat map)
WIS: Site (one small map = happy melee), Skelegons (when training)
Opal: Jr. Wraith
Diamond: Drum Bunnies (and hope for a Chaos scroll as well)

Mix:
DEX/Opal: Samiho

I'm quite sure that's by the level, and not by the preferred mobs.

[Schrono]

Ooo, I assume that is in order of preferred mobs? It does help a lot then. Thank you.

Looking at all this I am probably going to go in this order:

Pure drop:
DEX: Samiho (If I feel like camping Nine-tails)/STD (because it's one flat map)
WIS: Site (one small map = happy melee), Skelegons (when training)
Opal: Jr. Wraith
Diamond: Drum Bunnies (and hope for a Chaos scroll as well)

Mix:
DEX/Opal: Samiho

It's based on level, not preference. I just went through the list saw what dropped them, and recalled which maps were atrocious for mobbing, which were difficult to move from one group of enemies to another, which were spawning just by themselves on a specific map, and the size of the map which they spawn on.

I really never spent enough time training on the majority of these maps/paying attention to the drop rates of these ores to determine if some drop them more frequently than others. For that you'll be on your own unfortunately .

[ChaosCorpse]

Simulation indicates these are attainable goals w/ approximately 60% chance to achieve all goals or an ~86% chance overall of accomplishing.

Spoiler

Simulation 1 - 5/6 goals met.

Label	Phase	High	Mid	Low	Cost	Goal Met
Str	Appraisal	1	3	21	2,500,000	TRUE
Dex	Appraisal	1	45	139	18,500,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Lows	1	56	6	10,200,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Mids	3	9	6	14,500,000	FALSE
Topaz	Appraisal	4	12	45	6,100,000	TRUE
Aquamarine	Appraisal	3	13	53	6,900,000	TRUE
Opal	Appraisal	2	7	20	2,900,000	TRUE
Total Cost					61,600,000

Simulation 2 - 4/6 Goals Met

Label	Phase	High	Mid	Low	Cost	Goal Met
Str	Appraisal	0	10	60	7,000,000	FALSE
Str	Upgrading Lows	0	14	7	5,100,000	FALSE
Str	Upgrading Mids	0	9	7	2,500,000	FALSE
Dex	Appraisal	2	45	138	18,500,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Lows	2	56	1	11,400,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Mids	4	30	1	800,000	TRUE
Topaz	Appraisal	4	15	107	12,600,000	TRUE
Aquamarine	Appraisal	3	21	66	9,000,000	TRUE
Total Cost					66,900,000

Simulation 3 - 5/6 Goals met - Price went over, marginally.

Label	Phase	High	Mid	Low	Cost	Goal Met
Str	Appraisal	0	6	64	7,000,000	FALSE
Str	Upgrading Lows	0	12	0	3,000,000	FALSE
Str	Upgrading Mids	1	2	0	100,000	TRUE
Dex	Appraisal	2	35	148	18,500,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Lows	2	46	1	14,400,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Mids	4	25	1	300,000	TRUE
Topaz	Appraisal	4	30	124	15,800,000	TRUE
Aquamarine	Appraisal	3	5	29	3,700,000	TRUE
Opal	Appraisal	2	13	64	7,900,000	TRUE
Total Cost					70,700,000

Simulation 4 - All goals met.

Label	Phase	High	Mid	Low	Cost	Goal Met
Str	Appraisal	1	13	25	3,900,000	TRUE
Dex	Appraisal	2	46	137	18,500,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Lows	2	58	9	6,000,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Mids	4	37	9	300,000	TRUE
Topaz	Appraisal	4	12	32	4,800,000	TRUE
Aquamarine	Appraisal	3	13	41	5,700,000	TRUE
Opal	Appraisal	2	6	13	2,100,000	TRUE
Total Cost					41,300,000

Simulation 5 - All goals met

Label	Phase	High	Mid	Low	Cost	Goal Met
Str	Appraisal	0	15	55	7,000,000	FALSE
Str	Upgrading Lows	0	20	3	2,100,000	FALSE
Str	Upgrading Mids	1	8	3	300,000	TRUE
Dex	Appraisal	2	50	133	18,500,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Lows	2	60	8	10,500,000	FALSE
Dex	Upgrading Mids	4	34	8	800,000	TRUE
Topaz	Appraisal	4	25	88	11,700,000	TRUE
Aquamarine	Appraisal	3	18	45	6,600,000	TRUE
Opal	Appraisal	2	6	13	2,100,000	TRUE
Total Cost					59,600,000

Thank you kindly. I hope to increase these odds by the time I sell off my 3 above avg maple weaps that I found, but this is promising to me. If it isn't too much trouble, another question.

Would I be better off for the same goals if I was to remain at current meso value or if I was to purchase refined dex (seeing as that is the highest need for upgrading post appraisal) at a rate of 400k per crystal?

I intend to increase mesos regardless before the next patch, but I just thought that this could be a decent question for others who actually want to make stuff versus selling the gems as an example for the relative poor.

[Dusk]

For Opals just train at Newties. It's only a little slower than Skelegons for most classes and I've gotten maybe 500-600 ores over there. In fact, half of my ore/jewel/crystal collection is composed of Wisdom/Opal/Bronze.

[Eos]

Would I be better off for the same goals if I was to remain at current meso value or if I was to purchase refined dex (seeing as that is the highest need for upgrading post appraisal) at a rate of 400k per crystal?

The more you have for your initial grading the more chance you have of getting your target number for the least expense. Your price exponentially rises as you are forced to upgrade.

By doubling the number of refined crystals/jewels you start with the simulation is capable of meeting all goals without upgrading, except for Dex.

You need ~400 dex crystals to succeed at getting 4 and that raises your costs beyond threshold. For that purpose it actually comes out cheaper on the dex crystals to do upgrades because the materials are already available have a significantly higher potential to become your target than the 1 in 100 chance the ungraded have.

[Stereo]

How are the costs of making High grade Dex Crystals affected by not bothering to assess the low-grades? I thought of this later...

74% LQ -> ~7% MQ - costs 480k each
25% MQ -> more than 3 times as many MQs

Also, break-down of number of LQ to get MQs:
60% - 10 (300k)
24% - 11 (600k)
9.6% - 12 (900k)
3.84% - 13 (1.2m)
1.536% - 14 (1.5m)
(1%) - 15+ (1.8m+)
Average: 10.5 LQ per MQ, 480,000 mesos.

This makes the 74% -> 7.04% assumption more clearly accurate.

Now I think about it, this could also be taken as a geometric series, a = 0.6, r = 0.4.

[Eos]

How are the costs of making High grade Dex Crystals affected by not bothering to assess the low-grades? I thought of this later...

Yeah, I had looked at that last night.
It invariably comes out cheaper to skip the low grades entirely because you're not reprocessing them twice... and at low volumes it makes no noticable improvement in your profit potention:

200 of each

Label	Phase	High	Mid	Low	Cost
Diamond	Appraisal	12	43	145	20,100,000
Diamond	Upgrading Lows	12	55	6	9,300,000
Diamond	Upgrading Mids	16	9	6	5,000,000
Total					34,400,000
Diamond - Skip	Appraisal	13	42	145	20,100,000
Diamond - Skip	Upgrading Mids	15	9	145	7,500,000
Total					27,600,000
Wis	Appraisal	3	60	137	20,000,000
Wis	Upgrading Lows	3	71	8	9,000,000
Wis	Upgrading Mids	8	1	8	12,500,000
Total					41,500,000
Wis - Skip	Appraisal	3	60	137	20,000,000
Wis - Skip	Upgrading Mids	7	9	137	7,500,000
Total					27,500,000

At high volumes it's not much better either:

2000 of each

Label	Phase	High	Mid	Low	Cost
Diamond	Appraisal	112	360	1528	200,100,000
Diamond	Upgrading Lows	112	489	0	110,100,000
Diamond	Upgrading Mids	150	4	0	71,500,000
Total					381,700,000
Diamond - Skip	Appraisal	109	396	1495	200,100,000
Diamond - Skip	Upgrading Mids	139	7	1495	59,500,000
Total					259,600,000
Wis	Appraisal	16	511	1473	200,000,000
Wis	Upgrading Lows	16	638	9	96,300,000
Wis	Upgrading Mids	68	9	9	80,500,000
Total					376,800,000
Wis - Skip	Appraisal	23	551	1426	200,000,000
Wis - Skip	Upgrading Mids	67	2	1426	76,500,000
Total					276,500,000

The break even cost / profit margin is much better discarding lows entirely, but depending on how much highs actually go for they can turn a decent profit on thier own.

[Stereo]

Yeah, it's dependent on material costs - buying
+ 4 unprocessed crystals
+ 400k (for the 25% mid-grade)
- 3 low-grade sold
- 1 mid-grade sold
vs.
+ 10.5 low-grade
+ 500k
- 1 mid-grade sold

I'm assuming low-grade will end up worth less than ungraded, by looking at this - balance is found when the 4 un - 3 low ~= 10.5 low => 4 un = 13.5 low

[Eos]

Yeah, it's dependent on material costs

It's quite possible that low-grade will end up worth less than the unrefined crystals.

Although it's equally possible that the low grade cast offs will sell for cheap enough to make a profit for people willing to buy them en masse and spend a fortune converting them, simply because anyone who refines and retails high grade in sufficient quantity will more than recoup the majority of thier processing expense off those highs and view the lows as extra garbage that they can cheaply eliminate as pure profit to recover slots.