30% Scrolls-For better or worse?

I've used 43 30% scrolls.

3 worked
40 failed/broke

Something doesnt seem right here...

LoL Jackk. Are you counting the ones that worked before the item broke?
(IE: 30% pass 30% pass 30% broke)
Or are you disregarding the passing scrolls completely? 0.o
Also, when counting dark scrolls, you should count the ones that fail no break as well.

Probability stands independent of itself (right? Right!)

Not really, although the larger the set, the closer it will be to the probabilities. That's why the law of averages applies when you're hunting for a certain item.

The 3 30's I got to work:

30% xbow on a gold crow with 6 slots. Boom'd right after that.

2 straight 30% bows to work on a fire arund then 2 more failed, and I 60'd the rest to get <some> money back on it.

I basically just know 40 30% scrolls didnt work. I never kept track of how many broke things though (On the other hand, my sister is 13/14 with 30's and once on Tespia, I got 8 straight 10's to work).

I realize that each scroll has a 30% chance of working and that they're all independent on each other but you'd think I'd be luckier than getting under 10% of my 30's to work. I mean, with those rates, i was better off using 10%'s...

Hopefully the law of averages hold up. With this many failures, Im bound to get a 21 atk bwg without having to glitch sooner or later! >_>

I basically just know 40 30% scrolls didnt work. I never kept track of how many broke things though (On the other hand, my sister is 13/14 with 30's and once on Tespia, I got 8 straight 10's to work).

I realize that each scroll has a 30% chance of working and that they're all independent on each other but you'd think I'd be luckier than getting under 10% of my 30's to work. I mean, with those rates, i was better off using 10%'s...

Hopefully the law of averages hold up. With this many failures, Im bound to get a 21 atk bwg without having to glitch sooner or later! >_>

Hmm...
Where to start...
Before I tallied up all my scrollings, I used to think that my 70%'s only worked 40% of the time, broke 40% of the time, and only fail no break 20% of the time. After I tallied it up, I realized that the 70%s actually worked 77% of the time.
Here's my documented record:
10% ~ 5 pass, 4+ fail
30% ~ 60 pass, 23+ fail, 19+ fail
60% ~ 36 pass, 37+ fail
70% ~ 99 pass, 13+ fail, 16 break

The + means that I'm uncertain of the undocumented ones.

The law of averages can be used, because although all probabilities are independent, why not just say that since we most likely won't find an ilbi, we won't find it? People will hunt monsters because when counting the success rate, you multiply the failure rate together and subtract that from one. For example, the chance that you'll find an ilbi after 20,000 spiders (which is the droprate btw) is 1 - (1-0.00005)^20,000 which is a 63% chance after killing 20K spiders.
I hope I'm making sense.
Subtract the failure rate is what I mean.

30%'s fail but don't break way to often, forcing me to waste another scroll to break the item.

You can't have more than 100% chance total. That just defies the laws of everything. For the record, here is my scrolling record (I may have a few that haven't been recorded but this is most of my scrolling record for the past 3 years):

10% - 26 total - 3 pass (11.54%), 23 fail (88.46%)
30% - 68 total - 17 pass (25.00%) 29 fail (42.65%) 22 break (32.35%)
60% - 83 total - 52 pass (62.65%) 31 fail (37.35%)
70% - 28 total - 21 pass (75.00%) 1 fail (3.57%) 6 break (21.43%)
100% - ALL PASSED HOLY CRAP

The expected numbers are:

10% - 10% pass 90% fail (duh)
30% - 30% pass 35% fail 35% break
60% - 60% pass 40% fail
70% - 70% pass 15% fail 15% break

Most of my numbers are pretty close to the expected numbers. The only things I would question are my abnormally high fail rate of 30%s and my abnormally low fail rate of my 70%s. It seems that every time a 70% fails, it breaks. All of these things can be attributed to random chance, though, and I really haven't used enough scrolls to make any wild claims. So in conclusion, I trust Nexon did not screw up their math and all scrolls work as they should. Yes, 30%s are dangerous to use. But they can be rewarding.

Harrisonized, your tallying is really messed up, sorry 23+ isn't a very specific number, it makes it look like you have more passes.

Harrisonized, your tallying is really messed up, sorry 23+ isn't a very specific number, it makes it look like you have more passes.

The + means there's more. I don't document it if it fails or breaks on the first slot. I always start counting when I get a scroll to pass on the item. That means that there are 30%s that broke first slot or 10% that fail no break first slots that I didn't account for, but the passes, I am certain that's all of them. LoL.

The + means there's more. I don't document it if it fails or breaks on the first slot. I always start counting when I get a scroll to pass on the item. That means that there are 30%s that broke first slot or 10% that fail no break first slots that I didn't account for, but the passes, I am certain that's all of them. LoL.

Yeah, I read what you posted and I know there's more, I'm just saying it'd be more useful information if you documented everything.

Here's my opinion on this issue:

I'd say 30%'s make it or break even for you (70%'s are just scrolls literally from the devil because simply they're not worth it). Literally, that scroll works wonders for me during my scrolling career (helped me scroll my really good weapons that I used), and also has its share of keeping me on a 4-Codar blowing streak. (still need to break that >_>)

Here's some of my scrolling projects working with 30%'s:







(Got a 30% to work on the 3rd slot after 2 60%'s worked before...amazing lol)



(Scrolling my DR....Paul [the admin of this site, back in his younger days] provided me with his scrolls he got off Gacha a long while ago. Sadly, his scrolls blew this up afterwards as you can see by the 70% that is in my inventory....xD)

Well that's what I have now. The only missing SS Im trying to find is my 2nd DR I scrolled successfully, a 105/7/1 (yes, a 30% on 1st slot). But for now, enjoy. The point Im trying to prove here (again) is that 30% can help you scroll really good things, but can also break even for you if things blow up through 30% scrolls. Sort of a 50-50 chance eh?