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2008-07-16, 04:18 PM
(This post was last modified: 2008-07-16, 04:20 PM by NoWaizMatt.)
Well, I have realized over time, that 30% scrolls really suck. I've blown maybe 7+ MS Shields with them, trying to scroll something. It seems that whenever it fails, it explodes your item. Let's look at something.
When you add up all the %s, you get 200% in all. 70% chance of failing, and then another 50% chance of exploding. So if you have a 30% scroll, then there is a 120/200, or 3/5ths chance of you getting screwed. There is the same chance that it will just remove a slot, and a measly 1/3ths chance (roughly) that your scroll will do what you hoped it would. So if you really look at it, 30% scrolls aren't really the best option unless you have a lot of money to blow.
An example of the odds would be, say your scrolling a hat with 30% scrolls. Of three of the five scrolls, you will either fail and lose a slot, or the item will explode. With only 1.5 scrolls (not possible, but meh) you have a chance of success. Which means, unless you are super lucky, you are gonna explode your item, or end up with something horrible.
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I don't quite understand your math there...
Anyway, 30% > 10% for all purposes except whiting.
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That's why you only do a few with 30%... Not that hard to land 2~3.
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NoWaizMatt Wrote:When you add up all the %s, you get 200% in all. 70% chance of failing, and then another 50% chance of exploding. So if you have a 30% scroll, then there is a 120/200, or 3/5ths chance of you getting screwed. There is the same chance that it will just remove a slot, and a measly 1/3ths chance (roughly) that your scroll will do what you hoped it would. So if you really look at it, 30% scrolls aren't really the best option unless you have a lot of money to blow.
An example of the odds would be, say your scrolling a hat with 30% scrolls. Of three of the five scrolls, you will either fail and lose a slot, or the item will explode. With only 1.5 scrolls (not possible, but meh) you have a chance of success. Which means, unless you are super lucky, you are gonna explode your item, or end up with something horrible.
Umm...your math is weird...how did you get 200% in all? There's one scroll and if you use it, there's an 100% chance that one of the three options will happen...not 200% :f6:
30% chance of working. 70% chance of failing.
if it fails, [70%], then there's a 50% chance it breaks.
70% * 50% = 35% of breaking
So...30% work, 35% fail and break, 35% fail and not break.
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You said 1/3 chance of actually working,boosting it to 33% chance of not failing:f6:
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Too much text. Click, drag and let it go and hope for the best. All there is to it.
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By 200% I mean there is 200% of %s itself in the scroll (50+50+70+30) =\
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2008-07-16, 05:22 PM
(This post was last modified: 2008-07-16, 05:24 PM by DumbApples.)
NoWaizMatt Wrote:By 200% I mean there is 200% of %s itself in the scroll (50+50+70+30) =\ If you divided that equally(excellent  )
-35% of the following possibilities:
-25%destroy
-25%lose a slot for nothing
-15% of actually working
=Total possibilties(100% where if not divided 200%)
P.S. I think I spelled 'possibilites' wrong
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Sorry, don't quite understand above...
It'd be 30% work, 35% fail, 35% BOOM!
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DarthIsis1 Wrote:Sorry, don't quite understand above...
It'd be 30% work, 35% fail, 35% BOOM! Im just dividing the 200% the TS got in half.
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It either works or it doesn't. Who cares about the numbers? /end thread.
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The whole point of Dark Scrolls is to put your items at a risk. Sure, it's great to have a higher percentage for a scrolls success, but the dark scrolls add a negative side to it. There is no "better or worse". You have a better chance for the scroll working, but you sacrifice that for the potential of the item breaking. Gain a little, lose a little.
Great, you can come up with exact percents, but that does nothing when you're actually scrolling. Just slap it on and hope it works. There isn't really anything else to discuss.
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The way I look at it, 30% = 3x 10%, hence 30%s have 3 times the chance of working.
There are pros and cons to everything and for me...
Pros = higher chance of working (good for scrolling somewhat cheap items en mass)
Cons = ability to break (making it costly if you're not rich and are trying to scroll things that cost a lot in a clean state)
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umm you're maths are flawed TS. if you roll a 100 sided die, and need 30 or less to land a scroll then it's: 30% to work and 70% to fail. then you have another dice roll if it lands on 30 or higher. this one is less than 50=use a slot, more than 50=bye bye item. that all happens in a split second and that's how it works
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Holypie Wrote:umm you're maths are flawed TS. if you roll a 100 sided die, and need 30 or less to land a scroll then it's: 30% to work and 70% to fail. then you have another dice roll if it lands on 30 or higher. this one is less than 50=use a slot, more than 50=bye bye item. that all happens in a split second and that's how it works
Why use a 2nd dice?
A 100 sided dice:
1-30 = Work
31 - 65 = Fail no break
66 - 100 = BOOOOM
Simple as that.
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god, what's so hard to understand?
the 50% of failing isnt 50% of the total 100%, its 50% of the failure rate only which is 70% (cuz it works 30% of the time).
therefore, there is a 35% chance for the item to be destroyed and 35% for the scroll to fail w/o destroying the item.
same goes with 70% scrolls, they have 70% scucces rate and 30% failure rate, which means 15% of the 30% will destroy ur item while the other 15% will only fail the scroll.
try to not look at it as 50% but as a half.
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Adding up all the screenshots I have taken of my scrollings, I end up with this:
30% statistics
Work: 60
Fail: 23+
Break: 19+
The 23+ and 19+ means that there are many undocumented issues. For example, if a scroll fails or breaks on the first slot, then I won't take SS of it.
Which means that in reality, I probably have an equal number of all of them. Which means, your math is really screwy.
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Harrisonized Wrote:Adding up all the screenshots I have taken of my scrollings, I end up with this:
30% statistics
Work: 60
Fail: 23+
Break: 19+
The 23+ and 19+ means that there are many undocumented issues. For example, if a scroll fails or breaks on the first slot, then I won't take SS of it.
Which means that in reality, I probably have an equal number of all of them. Which means, your math is really screwy.
I've used 43 30% scrolls.
3 worked
40 failed/broke
Something doesnt seem right here...
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[COLOR="Blue"]In one of those things you're not supposed to mention where I waste precious time not playing GMS, I used 300 30% scrolls on over 100 MS Shields, and broke every single one.
</3 30% scrolls[/COLOR]
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Retalion Wrote:I've used 43 30% scrolls.
3 worked
40 failed/broke
Something doesnt seem right here...
No it is VERY likely that you could fail dozens of less then 50% scrolls.
If 100 30%s do not work.
# 101 STILL has a 70% or a majority chance of failing.
Infact it has a greater chance of BOOM than working.
Probability stands independent of itself (right? Right!)
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