EE Probability on 1st scroll, what do YOU think?

Everyone here should already be familiar with the "80% chance to boom with first EE" issue...

Do any of you have any guesses as to why this is? Math lovers and coders, do you think Nexon using a 4/5 chance instead of an 80/100 chance could cause this?

It's often stated that computerized random number generators are never truly random; I surmise that Nexon's using a 4 out of 5 chance to boom, and the number being drawn most is the the number they selected to boom the item.

short-hand code example:

random_int(<code for random integer between 1 and 5>);
i = random_int();
if(i == 4){
boom_item;
}
else success_ee();

something like that (I know, I'm at work - trying to get the point across)...

Anybody wanna create an EE simulator based on 4/5 and 80/100 and see what happens? I can do it if necessary :O .. thoughts?

They have a 20% chance to explode... that's 1/5 or 20/100.

Yes, I'm aware of that. The problem is that people more often than not experience the 1st scroll booming the item, like the probability is backwards. Hence the issue. This only seems to effect items being scrolled on their first enhancement. I've lost 7 out of 9 items to a 1st-scroll EE, and several of my friends have, too. That's the issue. Have you not heard of this?

um... i dont even need to think about this

youve just been unlucky

People always remember how many scrolls they have boomed, but rarely pay attention when they work.

1st EE scroll works -> "Just as expected"

1st EE scroll fails -> "WTP, just lost 50m there, DAMMIT"

If you can give us some data to work with, we can do a hypothesis test and check out the probability of this issue. Would require a moderate-sizes sample space to have a relatively reliable test though. Oh, and no cherry picking, a hit is a hit and should be counted!

Noah

Yes, I'm aware of that. The problem is that people more often than not experience the 1st scroll booming the item, like the probability is backwards. Hence the issue. This only seems to effect items being scrolled on their first enhancement. I've lost 7 out of 9 items to a 1st-scroll EE, and several of my friends have, too. That's the issue. Have you not heard of this?

Thing is you say more often then not your only hearing a certain section of the population you not hearing about everybody else who passed the first slot as they don't report it. Same way you don't hear about all the people passing a 90% potential you only hear about the people who failed. Your 7/9 items is just pure chance if they were all in a row its highly unlikely but it can still happen. The only way you could know for sure is to take every single mapler at 1 time and have em use one on a first slot. In theory 20% of em should boom in reality it might be a little higher like 20.55% or a little lower. Another example is people passing a 10% on the first slot your only going to hear about the passes not the failures.

Its not an issue you and your buddies just drew the short end of the stick.

After booming like 5 items in a row with the first EE, I've stopped trying.

Some of you are clearly stereotyping me into a category of idiots. I know what I'm talking about, and it's not misfortune.

After booming like 5 items in a row with the first EE, I've stopped trying.

What kind of data would you like for me to collect? I can get a bunch of noob gear and scroll them with garbage and then EE then as many times you'd like. And yes, a hit on try #1 is a hit on try number one. And yes, I've counted ALL the items I've EE'd and I've boomed 7 out of 9 on first scroll.

It's just probability. It's bad luck.
I had great luck, 7/7 60% on my katara with no WS. You had bad luck.
What ever.

What kind of data would you like for me to collect? I can get a bunch of noob gear and scroll them with garbage and then EE then as many times you'd like. And yes, a hit on try #1 is a hit on try number one. And yes, I've counted ALL the items I've EE'd and I've boomed 7 out of 9 on first scroll.

The only way to be sure that EE scrols are glitched is to scroll as many items you can. It's impossible to test it alone, unless you got 1b+ mesos you want to waste to prove yourself wrong

I've only boomed 3 out of the atleast 200 items I've enhanced since it came out on the first enhance
Even if, for some reason, it was 4/5 and not 80/100, the difference would be miniscule...(under 1%)

It's just probability. It's bad luck.
I had great luck, 7/7 60% on my katara with no WS. You had bad luck.
What ever.

Raul if anybody thought the 60's were glitched, there would be a thread about them. This isn't about the 60s, this thread is SPECIFICALLY about 80% "PASS ON FIRST SCROLL" Equipment Enhancements. EE scrolls. Not 30s, not 50s, not 60s, not 70s. EE's, FIRST scroll only.

Also, the probability isn't necessarily miniscule if the number range is only 1-5, chances are a computerized random number generator will land several times more on the same digit in a series of chance. The question is then "which number will be picked most often?"

Do any of you even understand what's going on here? Were any of you even around when EE's first came out?

Some of you are clearly stereotyping me into a category of idiots. I know what I'm talking about, and it's not misfortune.

Pretty much this:

Thing is you say more often then not your only hearing a certain section of the population you not hearing about everybody else who passed the first slot as they don't report it.

Unless you can prove that for every of those scrolls you failed, there are not 4 other that succeeded, there's little strength in saying you know what you're talking about.

I'd suggest the same song you've probably been hearing for years, collect enough data, and good luck with that.

This thread wasn't created so people could tell me to do what I'm already doing. I have plenty of billions to waste on data collection, I'm asking if anyone with mathematical prowess or familiarity with the phrase "a computerized random number generator isn't actually random" has any theories as to why the issue at hand occurs. If you haven't experienced the issue or don't qualify to answer with a theory, stop wasting my time.

I've never passed a EE, so I've given up on them. I failed like what, 11 in a row?

RNG (random number generator) is the same and works for all scrolls, I don't think that Nexon would waste time or money making a new and glitched RNG just for the first EE scroll you use on a equipment. If there is a problem with EE scrolls, it's a problem with the scroll itself, not the RNG

This sounds like one of those Basil threads where people rage about potential/enhances booming their equips...

This thread wasn't created so people could tell me to do what I'm already doing. I have plenty of billions to waste on data collection, I'm asking if anyone with mathematical prowess or familiarity with the phrase "a computerized random number generator isn't actually random" has any theories as to why the issue at hand occurs. If you haven't experienced the issue or don't qualify to answer with a theory, stop wasting my time.

An issue whose very existence is being heavily questioned is the prerequisite to post? Wow, okay.

It's 80% like it says on the scroll o_o

The only way to really disprove this is to get hundreds to even thousands of items and scrolls and scroll them in the same session with you being the only user. The larger the sample size, the better the results and more accurate they will be. 9 items is in no way a 100% conclusive test. That's like saying a coin will always land on tails after flipping 5/5 coins as tails.