2012-03-24, 03:34 PM
Schmiddei Wrote:Something like the Monty Hall problem where probabilities change for the better (must agree that I'd never got that one either).
So I've just drawn a probability-diagram and the chances for failing a 10% Scroll are obviously 90% whereas the chance of failing two scrolls in a row is 81%. (Yeah and I know that one could see these as two different events with 90% failure rate... just check this Monty Hall Thing, since I can't explain it)
However I want to remark that I still don't think that "dump-scrolling" increases your chances (be it because of weird game mechanisms killing math, or just because it's illogical in general)
The monty hall problem is only valid because each choice eliminates an option from the list of possible outcomes and because there is only one person choosing and one choice that can be made. (There's only one set of doors).
It's so completely unrelated, mathematically, or even logically, to the situation as to be completely irrelevant.
It's not having what you want - It's wanting what you've got.