2008-10-30, 10:28 AM
Heh, I like how this turned into a discussion of probability. I do realize that each and every scroll you use has an independant value of it's chance of working, but I also agree with Butterfli and Orit. I know that when I'm trying to scroll something and I fail a couple dark scrolls in a row I will go buy a valuable one and use it.
More often than not it does work and that's because even though it may be the same percent chance of working, the odds of failing it go down with each fail you get. It's all well and good to look at them as independant constants, because they are. But if you look at it as a whole it's a random assortment of pass and fail that averages out to whatever percent the scroll is. At any given time you're likely not to get more than 3 or 4 fails in a row.
I don't bait scroll on purpose but if I notice a bad streak in scrolling I will risk a scroll on something more valuable. This has usually turned out to be profitable.
More often than not it does work and that's because even though it may be the same percent chance of working, the odds of failing it go down with each fail you get. It's all well and good to look at them as independant constants, because they are. But if you look at it as a whole it's a random assortment of pass and fail that averages out to whatever percent the scroll is. At any given time you're likely not to get more than 3 or 4 fails in a row.
I don't bait scroll on purpose but if I notice a bad streak in scrolling I will risk a scroll on something more valuable. This has usually turned out to be profitable.