2008-10-30, 09:09 AM
I could try to explain about a priori probability as opposed to conditional probability, but what's the point?
Instead, try the following experiment at home:
- Toss a coin 100 times (or more. the more, the better) and write down the results.
- Now, go over your results. Every time you see three heads in a row, note what the next toss result was. (If you see, say, four heads in a row, and then tail, you need to write down one head and one tail. One head followed the first three heads, and then one tail followed the last three heads).
- Let me know if you see significantly more tails than heads appearing after three heads.
(if you are willing to do a lot more coin tosses, you can study sequences of more heads, and see whether 10 or 20 heads in a row "force" a tail to appear next).
However, we are all assuming that Nexon implemented the scrolling mechanism so that each scroll is an independent event.
I'm pretty sure drops aren't independent events. For example, over hours of farming leprechauns, I have noticed that the charms generally drop in pairs. That is, after one charm drops, another will usually appear within a dozen leps or so. And then there will be no more charms for a long time. Then another pair.
I've seen the same with ore drops from other monsters - very often I'd get two identical drops in rapid succession. But this is not as regular as the leprechaun charms.
Instead, try the following experiment at home:
- Toss a coin 100 times (or more. the more, the better) and write down the results.
- Now, go over your results. Every time you see three heads in a row, note what the next toss result was. (If you see, say, four heads in a row, and then tail, you need to write down one head and one tail. One head followed the first three heads, and then one tail followed the last three heads).
- Let me know if you see significantly more tails than heads appearing after three heads.
(if you are willing to do a lot more coin tosses, you can study sequences of more heads, and see whether 10 or 20 heads in a row "force" a tail to appear next).
However, we are all assuming that Nexon implemented the scrolling mechanism so that each scroll is an independent event.
I'm pretty sure drops aren't independent events. For example, over hours of farming leprechauns, I have noticed that the charms generally drop in pairs. That is, after one charm drops, another will usually appear within a dozen leps or so. And then there will be no more charms for a long time. Then another pair.
I've seen the same with ore drops from other monsters - very often I'd get two identical drops in rapid succession. But this is not as regular as the leprechaun charms.