2008-10-29, 10:21 PM
butterfli Wrote:The way I see it is, how likely is it that you can fail 20 30% scrolls in a row? Not just failfailfailfailworkfailfail, but failfailfailfailfailfail. If you can fail 20 30% in a row, its likely that the 21th will hit. You might not have 20 30% 1h scrolls but that's why they call it baiting eh. It works well for my scrolling at least.
It's cheaper but riskier, obviously. And the supply of 30% 1h sword is much higher than 10% 1h gm scrolls. But if people wanna eliminate that risk by paying 7+ bil, it's their choice.
Gambler's fallacy.
Each scroll has a 30% chance of working. There's no place saying, "Oh, he failed 20 scrolls, let's give him one that works."