RADRaze2KX Wrote:Why would I need to prove this within 1% accuracy? I can get 500 EE scrolls if necessary and mass produce 500 of an item to scroll, with say i guess a staff, 700 100% scrolls to use on all of them. If after the first 100, the probability doesn't seem to be near 80%, (say 50% pass/fail) why continue? Double it, say the trial works on 70% in 200 trials, at what point do you stop and say "the rate truly is 80%" ? If 4 out of 5 work, that's truly 80% ... if 400 out of 500 work, that's 80% .. what happens when the probability is different per user? What if I fail 40 out of 50 and you pass 45 out of 50? Which one of us gets to determine the pass/fail rate of the scroll as seen by the community?Unless you can perform infinite trials, there is no "truly 80%" result. The larger the sample size, the closer to the actual probability you get, and with higher confidence.
4 successes out of 5 seems to hint towards 80% success rate, but I'm sure we're familiar with the concept of 10atk WGs (5x 60% successes).
What you don't get is that you're trying to use a finite process (failing 40 out of 50 and/or passing 45 out of 50) to determine an infinite result. The closer you get to "infinity", the better your answer (55 passes out of 100 is better than both the individuals) is.
RADRaze2KX Wrote:i said "Everyone here should already be familiar with the '80% chance to boom with first EE' issue..." this isn't something I made up in my head, this was a goddamn plague in Bera when EE's came out, and people smega'd the number of items they lost because of scrolls booming on first try. I'm not going to waste upwards of 3B to test a theory I had if nobody else can even remember the origin of the controversy in the first place. pineappleing pointless.
I have no idea what you're talking about because Equipment Enhancement scroll never failed on first slot for me personally or anyone I know for that matter. But perhaps it's just luck, or maybe I never was there when they failed, maybe they're not the whiny type, or perhaps I'm forever alone, you may say. Well, yeah, I'm glad you got the idea of this kind of stuff.
Last but not least,
RADRaze2KX Wrote:Also, the probability isn't necessarily miniscule if the number range is only 1-5, chances are a computerized random number generator will land several times more on the same digit in a series of chance. The question is then "which number will be picked most often?"[spoiler=I think this is what you're looking for]
[/spoiler]It's a pseudorandom number generator, yes, but to prejudice against it in that way is like saying naturalized citizens aren't real citizens and for some reason don't really function like a real citizen should. It's silly and pointless. Enhancement scrolls don't deserve an entirely different RNG for itself. If Maple's RNG has worked before, it will continue to work, until it fails altogether.

