2011-09-15, 03:00 AM
RADRaze2KX Wrote:I like this insight, this is helpful. So, if I EE'd 500 equips and got within 5% of 400 passing, I could say the trial is a success and proves the 80's are truly 80's? What if i'm off by more than a small margin, would the trial disprove 80's or be the unlucky victim of probability?
If you got 400 passes out of 500 then you can say that you're 99% sure the true probability of passing a first EE is between 75% and 85%.
If you only got 350 passes out of 500 then you can say that you're 99% sure the true probability of passing a first EE is between 65% and 75%.
If you want to be more sure (higher level of certainty), then you have to do more trials. It's a trade off between level of certainty and maximum error.