2011-07-20, 10:14 PM
Clarification: This game has night start. So Night One then Day One, Night Two then Day Two. So on and so forth.
If mafia manage to pull off a kill on opening night, then there is no room for a mislynch. 2 mafia / 6 players. Town mislynches on another villager. 2 mafia / 5 players. Mafia have a high chance of performing a successful killing the following night. 2 mafia / 4 players. Mafia win.
Voting for actives are actually difficult since they participate a lot and will proceed to defend themselves. However targeting an active for a fos makes you appear town if you present rational reasons for why someone might think they are scum, hopefully something more substantial than wifom. Also assuming this is a game with random players, the N1 kill will be more or less random. Assuming you know the other players in this game (meta) then you could supposedly choose the kill like this.
Again the game starts off N1. So there are no reads to form. Night 1 comes first, then Day 1 will come where such actions can be discussed.
Lmao. You can't save yourself as the doctor unfortunately.
N1 killing, saving, and investigating is random. However day strategy is not that random.
Sure. This is the first thought that comes to mind and what is often done if cop and doc haven't been night killed the first night.
Rational and the reason why mass claiming often occurs D1. What happens if mafia counterclaims cop on D1 with a fake report and the death of a villager? Would you lynch or no lynch?
What do you think mafia can do then to increase their chances of winning?
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Consider this: You are scum and you kill a villager night one. It sucks. The cop will likely claim and the doctor will be on him throughout the rest of the rounds. However in this setup, town doesn't have the chance to choose wrong if you manage to pull off both night kills with no doc save (highly probable that both kills are successful). To prevent the doc from being on the cop, you decide to cc the cop with a fake report. Town is stuck on D1 with two cop claims and no chance for mistakes. Their impulse is to no lynch and wait for each cop to gather more reports. The doctor will be on a "random" townie as mafia saccing the cop would result in a guaranteed mafia. You plan ahead to have your partner cast doubt on you being fake to throw distance between you two. If the cop does have a guilty on your partner, then you have your partner claim doctor in order to out the real doctor and kill him as soon as possible. Even though probability states that cc'ing each PR results in a 50/50 chance of losing, it is 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 chance and is actually better than getting stuck with the others blues: 2/4 which we won't reduce because saturation adds difficulty, unfortunately this saturation is reduced by the ability of the Cop PR. The chances are actually more like 2/5 as the doctor will want to stay in hiding for the earlier part of the game. However fact still remains that this is more of a game of psychology and bussing/fossing your own partner will result in gaining town's trust leading them to make a slip based on how good a job you do. As far as scum mechanics go, it is wise for one scum to always counter claim the cop. Picking to fake an innocent report on someone gullible may make them more pliable to vote in your favor. It is also possible to get a guilty on your own partner and bus Day 1 if the Night 1 kill is successful. As stated before, town only needs to make one mislynch when coupled with successful kills. Ideas on villager play coming later.
octopusprime Wrote:If village, d1 vote for an inactive.
If mafia manage to pull off a kill on opening night, then there is no room for a mislynch. 2 mafia / 6 players. Town mislynches on another villager. 2 mafia / 5 players. Mafia have a high chance of performing a successful killing the following night. 2 mafia / 4 players. Mafia win.
octopusprime Wrote:If Mafia N1 if villiage killed an inactive and i (we) are not that active, kill and inactive and ideally vote for an active next day.
Voting for actives are actually difficult since they participate a lot and will proceed to defend themselves. However targeting an active for a fos makes you appear town if you present rational reasons for why someone might think they are scum, hopefully something more substantial than wifom. Also assuming this is a game with random players, the N1 kill will be more or less random. Assuming you know the other players in this game (meta) then you could supposedly choose the kill like this.
octopus Wrote:If cop, N1 guess. It would be an educated guess but still a guess. Actions after depend on the results of the guess.
Again the game starts off N1. So there are no reads to form. Night 1 comes first, then Day 1 will come where such actions can be discussed.
octopus Wrote:Doctor N1 usually save myself or guess. Same as the doctor in a lot of ways.
Lmao. You can't save yourself as the doctor unfortunately.
octopus Wrote:It's really a lot of variables. A lot of things change depending on what happens and who dies and by what means. I guess optimally no one is inactive and D/N1 is all guesswork for everyone and D2 Depends on the results of d/n 1.
N1 killing, saving, and investigating is random. However day strategy is not that random.
DualReaver Wrote:The only strategy is to have the cop reveal himself, so the doctor can protect him.
Sure. This is the first thought that comes to mind and what is often done if cop and doc haven't been night killed the first night.
DualReaver Wrote:Due to the fact that the mafia needs to correctly guess 1/4 in order to kill the doctor, thus allowing them to kill the cop the next night, the mafia's hands will be tied. The cop then check everyone in turn, and will reveal the information to the group every day, telling only innocent or guilty as his verdict. The town must trust everything the cop says, and therefore will create known innocents, forcing the mafia to cover their tracks by eliminating them.
Rational and the reason why mass claiming often occurs D1. What happens if mafia counterclaims cop on D1 with a fake report and the death of a villager? Would you lynch or no lynch?
Dual Wrote:Of course, it all comes down to luck, but most of the time, luck won't shine in favor of the mafia, since they have to get a 1/4 chance while the cop only needs to locate 2/6, causing him to have a higher chance of victory. It also comes down to how smart the mafia and the doctor are, seeing if they can out-think each other on if the cop is actually being protected, because a wise doctor might realize that the mafia would expect a cop to be protected, allowing him to protect otherwise.
What do you think mafia can do then to increase their chances of winning?
=================================
Consider this: You are scum and you kill a villager night one. It sucks. The cop will likely claim and the doctor will be on him throughout the rest of the rounds. However in this setup, town doesn't have the chance to choose wrong if you manage to pull off both night kills with no doc save (highly probable that both kills are successful). To prevent the doc from being on the cop, you decide to cc the cop with a fake report. Town is stuck on D1 with two cop claims and no chance for mistakes. Their impulse is to no lynch and wait for each cop to gather more reports. The doctor will be on a "random" townie as mafia saccing the cop would result in a guaranteed mafia. You plan ahead to have your partner cast doubt on you being fake to throw distance between you two. If the cop does have a guilty on your partner, then you have your partner claim doctor in order to out the real doctor and kill him as soon as possible. Even though probability states that cc'ing each PR results in a 50/50 chance of losing, it is 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 chance and is actually better than getting stuck with the others blues: 2/4 which we won't reduce because saturation adds difficulty, unfortunately this saturation is reduced by the ability of the Cop PR. The chances are actually more like 2/5 as the doctor will want to stay in hiding for the earlier part of the game. However fact still remains that this is more of a game of psychology and bussing/fossing your own partner will result in gaining town's trust leading them to make a slip based on how good a job you do. As far as scum mechanics go, it is wise for one scum to always counter claim the cop. Picking to fake an innocent report on someone gullible may make them more pliable to vote in your favor. It is also possible to get a guilty on your own partner and bus Day 1 if the Night 1 kill is successful. As stated before, town only needs to make one mislynch when coupled with successful kills. Ideas on villager play coming later.