2010-08-29, 03:46 AM
xBTAx Wrote:Mephisto's technically right. If we assume that there's 3 mafia members per group like last game (which only had 1 more person), then there's a 6/17 chance of lynching a mafia member, compared to a 11/17 chance of lynching a villager. 6/17 is still relatively large though, since there's more than a 1/3 chance of killing a mafia member. Of course, once the mafia starts killing (assuming a mafia member isn't killed), the chances of lynching a mafia member when voting randomly will improve.
While I'm not disagreeing with what you said, I was actually referring to the phenomenon that occurs in a game with an odd number of people where, if there is no kill the first night, lynching a town member on the first day ups the mafia's chance of winning from 45% to 54%. Weird, right? Again, if anyone wants me to, I can link to relevant information.