Chances of making a 10 att pac

Have you ever participated in those events that give items + chaoses for them? That should give you some idea of how hard it is.

I made an 11 atk Agent Glove on the 3rd try... that was pretty much a waste of time >_< (I think they start out 3 atk so it's like making a 10 atk PAC? don't recall)

It's not the same though, event scrolls usually work 100% while Chaos are only 60% as likely. So compare the chance of making a 6 atk WG to a 10 atk WG...