2009-02-23, 06:14 PM
Stereo Wrote:It doesn't though, and every statistical test I've done on my history of scrolling has shown it to be completely unrelated (I used ~180 60% scrolls in the same setting so I have good sampling up to sequences of about 5-6).
Doesn't matter how many worked, it's still the same chance of hitting another one. Be that 65% (as '60%' scrolls seem to actually be), 10%, or whatever. Same thing, it doesn't matter if they failed - they're still going to have the same chance of failure.
If this person has made videos of their method I'd be interested, otherwise I don't really care about anecdotes. I've had 4 30% work in a row, it just comes down to using enough scrolls, eventually good results do happen.
That's why I'm probably a terrible person at explaining what I mean. I've never baited and I doubt I ever will. But a good friend of mine (SwordTM) won't scroll without baiting. He goes very in-depth with it, and I've seen first-hand the things he can do. I know it's taken him a very long time (like an hour?) to scroll one item. He's accomplished some crazy feats with his method (best example that comes to mind: two 15 att SCGs and a 20 att MS shield in a 3 day span...). The only "failure" in that time was one 13 att SCG.
Luckiest son of a gun known to man? Maybe. But I think there is something to his complex and time-consuming method. He uses a ton of scrolls for just one item. And he's the kind of guy that likes to run the numbers of things. Work things out. I'm not him, but just the things he's done has made me support it at least like this.