Posting Freak
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Have you ever participated in those events that give items + chaoses for them? That should give you some idea of how hard it is.
If you haven't, then...it's pretty unlikely you're going to get one without wasting a LOT of money on the materials.
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I only did the syrup event with the noses and it didn't seem that hard I might of got lucky i guess. But i get what your saying. It just seems common nowadays since everyone has 8+ att pacs.
Posting Freak
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Let's just say not very likely. If you think 5% is good odds though, go for it. I don't know the exact probability, but the point is that it's very low.
If you are willing to wait around, you might witness one of those events Takebacker described. Maple Anniversary would be one of them, but it doesn't happen every year.
One last thing, those goody goodies might seem common, but that's because no one sane would really just NPC them or confine them to some limbo for eternity due to abandonment. Don't go in over your head =P
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Well I wouldn't try to make it but bellocan its hard to merchant since the economy is dead. Ill be waiting for months on end trying to sell things that would normally sell fast in highly populated servers. Most i can do is use mts which has everything overprice.
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With 5 chaos scrolls and 2-3 2 atk PAC, there's a 8% chance of succeeding (to get a 10 atk or more PAC). To get a 50% chance of succeeding, you will need 33 chaos scrolls, and (on average) 18 2 atk pac.
For 90% chance, 104 and 50.
Noah