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  1. Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    woops, they are still there. also when that ends there will probably be another one
    there are the magic boxes, magic teabags or whatever else they have

    so probably this method of testing will keep being viable. albeit a periodic one

  2. Orbital Bee Cannon
    IGN: SaptaZapta
    Server: Kradia
    Level: 275
    Job: Hero
    Guild: Matriarchy
    Alliance: Peaceful

    Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    Yes, we'll just have to determine the base drop rate of each type of item, before we can test other things.

    I'm hoping for a 2x event this weekend, and holding on to the 2x drop card from the 1/11 compensation to use then as well.

  3. Orbital Bee Cannon
    IGN: SaptaZapta
    Server: Kradia
    Level: 275
    Job: Hero
    Guild: Matriarchy
    Alliance: Peaceful

    Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    Today's runs, with pig and greed pendant: 63, 69, 63, 82, 70, 72, 74, 63, 57

    average = 68.1
    Which is only a hair higher than pig alone (65.9), and not even 1.6x the "base rate". Variance is high and I'm sure RayGun will tell us that this doesn't rule out pig and pendant being multiplicative with each other, but it still looks really weird.

  4. Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    I think that probably means your greed pendant was not working?
    the rise in drops is not statistically significant. it is like 2.2. standard dev for 1.6 is 8.11, divide by sqrt9 = 2.7 since it is multiple tests. Z is about 0.8, so well within 1.96, so no real diff. so you could basically say you got 1.6 today

    could it be 1.8?
    lower range of 95% CI with 1.8 is 65.9*1.8/1.6- 1.96*(8.57/sqrt9)
    (EDIT - I made a new expected value for 1.8x drop based on your 1.6 - expect 74.135
    68.53. since below this it is probably not 1.8 so your greed pendant not working today? So it is just outside so we can reject that 1.8

    though it maybe because you got higher drop rate previous day. you did get higher than straat but only by like 2. it is just outside the range where we can say it could be 1.8. well either way it is still quite an extreme result so their RNG is kinda weird/ messed up

    Also I should add that the stuff so far I have done only shows that the average rate of the RNG is close to what they said it should be. It does not mean their RNG actually works

    many flaws with their RNG. I have noticed that good drops tend to often have a long period of not dropping and then suddenly drop in large numbers one after the other. This occurs surprisingly often. whereas you would expect the chance of two consecutive drops would be the chance of a one single drop squared/cubed etc. Basically if a drop is 1% chance, chance of two drops consecutive kills should be 0.01%, but it has occured way more often than that for me

    so their RNG may have some correlation between consecutive rolls. this however will be much harder to test, unless we somehow get a large number of cheap laborers watching streams of maple play and noting the drops and time


    if someone really has nothing to do and has heaps of spare time, or a large number of cheap laborers, perhaps they could study damage numbers and write up a spreadsheet of damage numbers. we can then see if their RNG is messed up and how. since here we only get a yes/no for drop and aggregated data.

  5. Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    Actually now i think about it, the greed pendant could be said to be working, it could still be 1.8
    if we use the average base rate based on you and straatlamp (posts 26, 33 and 31) of 40.19. this is a larger sample, so more accurate
    new expected value is 72.3
    Now it is just within the 95% range. So Nex's RNG could be saved for now

    As you can see statistics is not all that exact of a science as they like to make out, don't believe every statistics you hear in the news hahaha


    Another reason i thought of it being additive for those equips is because it is easier to calculate.
    since equips are like 20% 30% etc if they multiplied it would turn into 1.44. 1.56 etc which would be annoying to calculate, esp if you wear multiples of them
    where as the buffs are large round numbers 1.6, 1.5, 2, 3 etc

  6. Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    actually we are closer to a solution than we thought


    tests additive mult add expected drop add 1.96 mult expected rop mult 1.96 diff in means sum of CI 95 range min tests
    fam and pendant 1.6 1.2 1.8 1.92 72.35 16.11 77.17 16.60 4.82 32.72 46.01
    card/event pendant 2 1.2 2.2 2.4 88.42 17.67 96.46 18.39 8.04 36.06 20.12
    card/event fam 2 1.6 2.6 3.2 104.50 19.06 128.62 20.89 24.12 39.95 2.74
    straat pendant fam 3 1.6 3.6 4.8 144.69 21.97 192.93 24.72 48.23 46.69 0.94
    straat pendant card 3 2 4 6 160.77 22.96 241.16 26.89 80.39 49.86 0.38

    based on drop rate extrapolated from straatlamp and zapta's tests.

    problem we have faced is the variation in the drops

    so I have calculated the number of runs you need to do to overcome it, to basically have it such that the result is clearly one or the other
    based on a 95% confidence interval. I have calculated how many tests you need to do so that the 95% CI do not overlap. when that happens the result is clearly one or the other.
    maybe do a few more than the listed min number to be sure

    bascially straat can do it in one run or two runs since he has so many equips getting 200%, so it produces a large enough difference

  7. Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    actually it is below the minimum where we can say multiplicative (1.92) at 95% confidence level, which is 77.2-16.6/sqrt9 = 72. so it sort of contradicts straatlamp's results. as above, it can still be additive though at 1.8

    my minimum number of tests is for the case when you get a number inbetween 1.8 and 1.92, but here you got below 1.8

    but i'd think straatlamp tests made it clear that they were multiplicative. since he had 200% gear which produced a huge difference which overcame the variance
    I am quite surprised they are multiplicative, given that pendant of spirit is not. (I am right about the pendant of spirit, am I?)

    I suppose Nex enjoys the whimsy of having different rules for every system

  8. Sacred cow Male
    IGN: Equi
    Server: Aquila
    Level: 235
    Job: Luminous
    Guild: Pineapples
    Farm: holycow
    singapore

    Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    isn't greed pendant only 20% equipment drop rate? or is that for msea only ._.

  9. Orbital Bee Cannon
    IGN: SaptaZapta
    Server: Kradia
    Level: 275
    Job: Hero
    Guild: Matriarchy
    Alliance: Peaceful

    Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    I think that one's Avarice? Avarice is the one that comes from Monster Park bonus stage boxes.
    Greed is the pendant that comes from Monster Park Extreme, and its description says "Increases drop rate by 20% when equipped".

    My results with the pendant alone seem to show that it does increase drop rate, though possibly by less than 20%.

    It's also a possibility that it simply does not stack with anything. Straatlamp's results for gear alone look more like a 180% buff than the 200% it should be for 9 lines of 20% + the pendant's inherent 20%. (Although 200% is not ruled out).

  10. Sacred cow Male
    IGN: Equi
    Server: Aquila
    Level: 235
    Job: Luminous
    Guild: Pineapples
    Farm: holycow
    singapore

    Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    guess msea sucks then lol


    doesn't avarice only work in mp?

  11. Orbital Bee Cannon
    IGN: SaptaZapta
    Server: Kradia
    Level: 275
    Job: Hero
    Guild: Matriarchy
    Alliance: Peaceful

    Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    Today's results, still with pig and pendant: 75, 79, 59, 50, 59, 64, 71, 75, 62, 60 for an average of 65.4

    Definitely beginning to look like the Greed Pendant doesn't stack with the pig familiar.
    It's not impossible. We know familiars cancel Use-type drop buffs such as Easter Eggs. Maybe the pendant's buff is also canceled out this way, even though it has no buff icon.

    @Straatlamp, anything new to report?
    I would like to know how your Greed Pendant combines with your Wolf. I know your pendant also has a 20% drop potential. It would be interesting to see whether it seems to act as 0, 20, or 40%, when combined with the wolf.

  12. Neutron Straight Male

    IGN: ElIuel
    Server: Scania GMS
    Level: 212
    Job: Wind Archer
    Guild: Studio
    Alliance: Legacy
    netherlands

    Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    greed pendant +20% drop potential along with wolf gave me :
    - 114
    - 104
    - 113
    - 113
    - 101
    - 105
    - 104
    - 99
    - 118
    - 113

    Averaging 108,4

  13. Orbital Bee Cannon
    IGN: SaptaZapta
    Server: Kradia
    Level: 275
    Job: Hero
    Guild: Matriarchy
    Alliance: Peaceful

    Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    Thank you.
    If the Greed Pendant didn't work at all, we'd expect to see an average of 88 (double the base of 44).
    If its potential worked but its innate buff didn't, we'd expect to see an average of 105.6 (44 x 1.2 x 2)
    If it worked fully, we'd expect to see an average of 123.2

    What you got most closely matches the second option.
    Along with my results, I think we are ready to conclude that Greed Pendant has no effect when used with a drop-rate familiar.
    My results with it alone look like it does work solo, but it's not enough data to be conclusive.

    I am trying to decide whether to use Cassandra's 2x drop buff tomorrow with or without my Greed Pendant. (Can't use it with the Pig as it will cancel the coupon buff). Was hoping to catch a 2x event to try stacking with it, but that doesn't look like it's happening, and the coupon expires Monday.
    What do you guys say, with or without the pendant?

  14. Neutron Straight Male

    IGN: ElIuel
    Server: Scania GMS
    Level: 212
    Job: Wind Archer
    Guild: Studio
    Alliance: Legacy
    netherlands

    Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    I actually think we got the same pendant as MapleSEA (20% extra drop for equipment) but GMS just left that description out, it would make 'sense' that way

  15. Orbital Bee Cannon
    IGN: SaptaZapta
    Server: Kradia
    Level: 275
    Job: Hero
    Guild: Matriarchy
    Alliance: Peaceful

    Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    Thing is, with the pendant alone I got an average of 50 quills, as opposed to 44 without. Could just be RNG, but it looked like it was doing something.

  16. Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    For equipment, try Monster Park. You can also do Evolution System, and track based on EXP. Alien PQ is probably too painful to loot and kill for this.

    If you're a masochist, go Evolution System or somewhere similar, and kill with a single-target skill, and rack up your multi-kill to 999. Then tally your loot, and repeat.

    Hadriel

  17. Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    lol multi-kill 999. so there is a max limit. i have never gotten past like 100 or 200

    however there is also that quest where you kill the 999999 monster for dalair and get a medal. if that does a progress count, you can use it for the mob-count.

    also if the kill 300 quest comes back you can do that also

  18. Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    I tested the multi-kill stuff here.

    Hadriel

  19. Brick Male
    IGN: ZeroCA
    Server: Windia
    Level: 21x
    Job: Zero
    Guild: EssentiaI
    Alliance: N/A
    Farm: ReneMule
    usa

    Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    Now that I can stay on maple for more than ten minutes without frustrating lag:

    Would it be helpful if I got on my mules with pets, and greed+spider to test this at DI further?

    Testing for the amount of equips dropped also sounds like a good idea.

  20. Neutron Straight Male

    IGN: ElIuel
    Server: Scania GMS
    Level: 212
    Job: Wind Archer
    Guild: Studio
    Alliance: Legacy
    netherlands

    Default Re: Question on Drop Rate


    Every little bit of info helps

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