Chance of potential for crafting belts.

Hello everyone,

I've been crafting stuff since professions came out and I've always wondered about rates for potential and stuff like that. Then last weekend I decided to finally do a little experiment. Below is the link for 1000 sharp green leather belts. Since statistics is not my best subject I'll leave you guys to do the hardcore stuff.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...G93a19DV09TZXc

Edit: I forgot to include details XD. This was done on mules with level 1 crafting. I don't know if that's relevant to chance for potential or not. Also I noticed that every time I got a "Cool" when crafting the belt came out with potential. Whenever I got "Good" it was without potential. "So so" was the one that confused me because I've had it come with and without potential.

Goes along with what I thought the rates were. When I craft, I get items with potential approx. 25% of the time.

Well is not that difficult to calculate... if after crafting 1000 there are 226 belts whit potential...

1000=100%
226=22.6%

if i am correct, the chances are 22.6%?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by CrazyForDex

Goes along with what I thought the rates were. When I craft, I get items with potential approx. 25% of the time.

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pretty close to 25%

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DarkForgeJ

Well is not that difficult to calculate... if after crafting 1000 there are 226 belts whit potential...

1000=100%
226=22.6%

if i am correct, the chances are 22.6%?

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Should be.

Check out binomial for a probability though.

.25, 1000, 226 go into the boxes -> about a 3.5% chance of this occurring if that's the true underlying probability. (you want cumulative P(X<226) to be as close to 50% as possible, really)



Another way of looking at it:
In 1000 trials, 203 were rare. (just about 20%)
23 were epic (near 2%)

I'd say it's plausible you have a 20% chance of rare, 2% chance of epic, 0.2% chance of unique...

Kinda sad, You'd expect at least one or two uniques after 1,000 belts.. lol

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Stereo

Should be.

Check out binomial for a probability though.

.25, 1000, 226 go into the boxes -> about a 3.5% chance of this occurring if that's the true underlying probability. (you want cumulative P(X<226) to be as close to 50% as possible, really)



Another way of looking at it:
In 1000 trials, 203 were rare. (just about 20%)
23 were epic (near 2%)

I'd say it's plausible you have a 20% chance of rare, 2% chance of epic, 0.2% chance of unique...

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I am 15 years old and i was like this for 1 minute

http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/360...ppt1qf2qhh.jpg

The good thing is that google traduced that for me...

Yeah I was also hoping for 1 or 2 uniques but the numbers don't lie. I'm going to be making another 1000 so hopefully we can get an idea of the chance of unique.

I'll be mass producing belts myself soon, so I can do something similar to contribute.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Darkstars

Yeah I was also hoping for 1 or 2 uniques but the numbers don't lie. I'm going to be making another 1000 so hopefully we can get an idea of the chance of unique.

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Reforging almost doubles the odds - every rare belt you make after the first can be fused to get another chance at unique potential.

Plus, you can fuse the non-potential belts for a ~1 in 5 chance at hidden pot the second time around.

In the end, I believe you have about a 1 in 500 chance of getting a unique item.

You need a second character with item fusing to do that, though, since you can't craft and fuse on the same char.

I'm actually working on fusing all the belts now but there are a lot of them XD. I'll be doing another run next week once my midterms are done. Hopefully I can get an idea of unique rates then.

If it's lvl 40 belts, craft and fuse them on a cannoneer. There is no need to lvl any profession so that shouldn't be too much of a hassle.

in hindsight, i kind of regret not tracking this info cuz ive probably made like 8k belts.

will remember this thread next time i go on a belt spree.