Triple Throw 30.

[Andos.]

I've been trying to work TT30 books recently, but apperently the rate of it working seems to be really low?
9 failed so far, doesnt seem like a 50% rate.
Am I the only one that failed that many? :f7:

[Dusk]

I've been trying to work TT30 books recently, but apperently the rate of it working seems to be really low?
9 failed so far, doesnt seem like a 50% rate.
Am I the only one that failed that many? :f7:

Sorry about your luck, but your chances of flipping a coin and getting 9 heads in a row aren't that bad.

[Andos.]

10th.
http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/4627/maple0794ka9.jpg
Finally

[Cavalier]

Congrats (finally).

[Harrisonized]

Wow, how'd you afford that many TT30 books! LoL.

Grats.

[Andos.]

Wow, how'd you afford that many TT30 books! LoL.

Grats.

TT30 books are pretty cheap at the moment in Bellocan. Mainly because that boxes give it out + HT hackers. Made sure it was legits ones though.
They cost from 70 to 80 Mil in bello.:redface:

[RoxStarz]

Sorry about your luck, but your chances of flipping a coin and getting 9 heads in a row aren't that bad.

We can quickly calculate the odds of getting nine heads in a row. It is much more difficult than you say.

1 head in a row 50%
2 heads in a row 25%
3 heads in a row 12.5%
4 heads in a row 6.25%
5 heads in a row 3.125%
6 heads in a row 1.563%
7 heads in a row 0.781%
8 heads in a row 0.39%
9 heads in a row 0.195%

so about 2/10ths of 1% chance to fail TT 9 times in a row at 50% pass rate.

[Mazz]

10th.
http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/4627/maple0794ka9.jpg
Finally

*high 5* i passed berserk 30 on my 10th try too! :D

[Andos.]

*high 5* i passed berserk 30 on my 10th try too! :D

30 books sucks eh?

[ZakumSlaYers]

I've been trying to work TT30 books recently, but apperently the rate of it working seems to be really low?
9 failed so far, doesnt seem like a 50% rate.
Am I the only one that failed that many? :f7:

Well... i passed it on the first try in MSEA, the price of it was 300m then :heart:

[Dusk]

We can quickly calculate the odds of getting nine heads in a row. It is much more difficult than you say.

1 head in a row 50%
2 heads in a row 25%
3 heads in a row 12.5%
4 heads in a row 6.25%
5 heads in a row 3.125%
6 heads in a row 1.563%
7 heads in a row 0.781%
8 heads in a row 0.39%
9 heads in a row 0.195%

so about 2/10ths of 1% chance to fail TT 9 times in a row at 50% pass rate.

That's 1 out of 512 people. Not that bad, as I said.

[JoeTang]

Every chance he has to fail is 50%. Regardless of the last book failing or not, his next book will always be a 50% chance.

[FelixTM]

Every chance he has to fail is 50%. Regardless of the last book failing or not, his next book will always be a 50% chance.

This is true, and it can never be changed. However, probability is a real factor too. It's the reason so many people use bait scrolling. Obviously you can't make "scrolls work moar" by using baiting, but you do increase your odds if done right. That's all it is...playing the odds.

People who have more confidence in the facts of probability than plain and simple luck use baiting. While it does seem wasteful, if not tedious, it is smart. It's like counting cards in blackjack.

[Shidoshi]

No, it is not like counting cards in blackjack. Scrolls are independant events. It's like if they randomized the cards in blackjack before dealing each card. Though the probability of two mastery books working in a row is really 25%. The probability that the second one works, given the first one worked, is 50%.

[FelixTM]

No, it is not like counting cards in blackjack. Scrolls are independant events. It's like if they randomized the cards in blackjack before dealing each card. Though the probability of two mastery books working in a row is really 25%. The probability that the second one works, given the first one worked, is 50%.

There are similarities and there are differences. Regardless, perhaps it was a bad comparison to use. That wasn't the point of my post anyway.

Obviously it's not like cards because each scroll can change, while there's always the same cards coming out of a deck. When you know where a card is, you know it can't be in the deck. Much simpler, yes. And in that regard, baiting and counting cards can't be compared. I realize that difference.


However, lets forget counting cards. I think you misunderstand (or underestimate) the concept like I used to. I always used to laugh at people who would waste time with bait scrolls, until a good friend of mine explained and demonstrated it much better to me. He's insanely good at playing odds, and it usually rewards him. The longer he drags out a scrolling session, the better "feel" he can get for what's going to happen.

There's still probability, even with scrolling. While each scroll may have a 60% chance of working, the chances of consecutive success continues to decrease (not the scroll itself). That's what probability tells us. I realize there is no "effective" way to scroll. It's all luck, but you don't have to ride on faith alone.

---

@ Below: Again, completely misunderstanding my view. I don't even bait, nor have I. But I'm not so dense as to fail to see the concept and how it can help you with the situation. I think people need to stop thinking that people who defend baiting are saying it makes scrolls work more.

[Dusk]

This is true, and it can never be changed. However, probability is a real factor too. It's the reason so many people use bait scrolling. Obviously you can't make "scrolls work moar" by using baiting, but you do increase your odds if done right. That's all it is...playing the odds.

People who have more confidence in the facts of probability than plain and simple luck use baiting. While it does seem wasteful, if not tedious, it is smart. It's like counting cards in blackjack.

*facepalm* Baiting is a huge and pointless waste of mesos and doesn't affect your odds whatsoever.

[Shidoshi]

There's still probability, even with scrolling. While each scroll may have a 60% chance of working, the chances of consecutive success continues to decrease (not the scroll itself). That's what probability tells us. I realize there is no "effective" way to scroll. It's all luck, but you don't have to ride on faith alone.

Jesus, I feel I'm wasting my time on this discussion.

Though for two 60% scrolls to work in a row the chance is 36%, which would be treating both scrolls as a single event, the chances of each one DO NOT AFFECT the other. In other words, the chance for the 100th 60% scroll to work after the 99 before it failed (example) is still 60%. It's like saying that because you flipped heads on a coin three times the next one has more chance to flip tails.

[FelixTM]

Jesus, I feel I'm wasting my time on this discussion.

Though for two 60% scrolls to work in a row the chance is 36%, which would be treating both scrolls as a single event, the chances of each one DO NOT AFFECT the other. In other words, the chance for the 100th 60% scroll to work after the 99 before it failed (example) is still 60%. It's like saying that because you flipped heads on a coin three times the next one has more chance to flip tails.

I AM purposely wasting time on this discussion. I need to kill some time right now.

Scrolling is an event. I know many people that choose to use many scrolls at a time rather than just one every few days or something. To me, that becomes a single session, not several sessions occurring one after the other. Doesn't really matter, though.

The point I'm trying to make is nothing complex. It's simply that probability tells us it's continually harder to hit consecutive scrolls. Because of the way scrolls work, their success never changes. That's obvious and has been pointed out enough times.

Baiting serves as a crunch for people who are scared of raw luck. It's helpful in that regard alone. I'm not even disagreeing with your side, which is why I don't understand your misunderstanding.

[Stereo]

The point I'm trying to make is nothing complex. It's simply that probability tells us it's continually harder to hit consecutive scrolls. Because of the way scrolls work, their success never changes. That's obvious and has been pointed out enough times.

It doesn't though, and every statistical test I've done on my history of scrolling has shown it to be completely unrelated (I used ~180 60% scrolls in the same setting so I have good sampling up to sequences of about 5-6).


Doesn't matter how many worked, it's still the same chance of hitting another one. Be that 65% (as '60%' scrolls seem to actually be), 10%, or whatever. Same thing, it doesn't matter if they failed - they're still going to have the same chance of failure.

If this person has made videos of their method I'd be interested, otherwise I don't really care about anecdotes. I've had 4 30% work in a row, it just comes down to using enough scrolls, eventually good results do happen.

[FelixTM]

It doesn't though, and every statistical test I've done on my history of scrolling has shown it to be completely unrelated (I used ~180 60% scrolls in the same setting so I have good sampling up to sequences of about 5-6).


Doesn't matter how many worked, it's still the same chance of hitting another one. Be that 65% (as '60%' scrolls seem to actually be), 10%, or whatever. Same thing, it doesn't matter if they failed - they're still going to have the same chance of failure.

If this person has made videos of their method I'd be interested, otherwise I don't really care about anecdotes. I've had 4 30% work in a row, it just comes down to using enough scrolls, eventually good results do happen.

That's why I'm probably a terrible person at explaining what I mean. I've never baited and I doubt I ever will. But a good friend of mine (SwordTM) won't scroll without baiting. He goes very in-depth with it, and I've seen first-hand the things he can do. I know it's taken him a very long time (like an hour?) to scroll one item. He's accomplished some crazy feats with his method (best example that comes to mind: two 15 att SCGs and a 20 att MS shield in a 3 day span...). The only "failure" in that time was one 13 att SCG.

Luckiest son of a gun known to man? Maybe. But I think there is something to his complex and time-consuming method. He uses a ton of scrolls for just one item. And he's the kind of guy that likes to run the numbers of things. Work things out. I'm not him, but just the things he's done has made me support it at least like this.

[Dusk]

The point I'm trying to make is nothing complex. It's simply that probability tells us it's continually harder to hit consecutive scrolls. Because of the way scrolls work, their success never changes. That's obvious and has been pointed out enough times.


Probability of passing 100 60%s in a row: ~6.533*10^-23

Probablity of passing 1 60%, after you pass 99 other 60%s, for a total of 100 60%s in a row: 0.6

Do you agree with the above statement? If so, then I don't really understand what you're trying to say.

[Shidoshi]

Probability of passing 100 60%s in a row: ~6.533*10^-23

Probablity of passing 1 60%, after you pass 99 other 60%s, for a total of 100 60%s in a row: 0.6

Do you agree with the above statement? If so, then I don't really understand what you're trying to say.

I think what he means is that, for some people, baiting with scrolls may give them confidence in scrolling, even if that doesn't realistically change the probabilities.

[FelixTM]

I'm trying to say there's better ways to scroll than simply grabbing some scrolls and slapping 'em on the item you want. I've argued against that with him so many times, and he shoves all my logic right back at me every dang time with the insane things he makes.

I don't even know what I believe anymore. But dangit, I honestly and truly do not believe he would have gotten that +10 10/20 MS shield (among several other things) by just taking 10 scrolls and using one after the other on it. I know there's NOTHING to support that, but it's what he's made me believe. He went through tons of dummy items and several, several bait scrolls to make that one item. In the entire long process, never did he get a consecutive 10 to work. It's because he used dummy equips during the process that it happened.

HOW HE READ THE SCROLLS, HOW HE READ WHEN HE FELT WAS BEST TO GO BACK TO THE SHIELD...I DO NOT KNOW.

And it hurts my brain. I wanted to believe he just hacks or something, but I know he doesn't! Am I believe he's frickin' psychic?

Seriously...I can't see it being anything more than a comfort method... But how does he do it again and again?

[Stereo]

Luckiest son of a gun known to man? Maybe.

Sometimes I get this feeling that some characters are just luckier than others. Maybe he's good with glove atk.

I mean, my pass rate on 60% 2h bw scrolls is pretty good (about 71%), but I absolutely fail at 70% topwear str (52% worked). And it's not just a one-time thing, it's a pattern over dozens of scrolls. Hell, 4 of the last 10 broke the item. That's not 15%.

And then I go to my DK (obv. haven't used as many) and find the opposite - only 50% of the 60% 2h BW worked, but 70% of the 70% top str did.


Interestingly, my DK has had 10 60% polearm work in a row. 7 went on a blood board for sure, not sure about the others (maybe my 9 Dragons? Another blood board?) It was an isolated success though, I failed 6 straight onto a Hellslayer after that.

[JoeTang]

Add more points into LUK.

[Dusk]

I'm trying to say there's better ways to scroll than simply grabbing some scrolls and slapping 'em on the item you want. I've argued against that with him so many times, and he shoves all my logic right back at me every dang time with the insane things he makes.

I don't even know what I believe anymore. But dangit, I honestly and truly do not believe he would have gotten that +10 10/20 MS shield (among several other things) by just taking 10 scrolls and using one after the other on it. I know there's NOTHING to support that, but it's what he's made me believe. He went through tons of dummy items and several, several bait scrolls to make that one item. In the entire long process, never did he get a consecutive 10 to work. It's because he used dummy equips during the process that it happened.

HOW HE READ THE SCROLLS, HOW HE READ WHEN HE FELT WAS BEST TO GO BACK TO THE SHIELD...I DO NOT KNOW.

And it hurts my brain. I wanted to believe he just hacks or something, but I know he doesn't! Am I believe he's frickin' psychic?

Seriously...I can't see it being anything more than a comfort method... But how does he do it again and again?
It seems like he's just scrolling a crapload of stuff and just happens to get lucky on the items that actually matter. Call it hacks, call it unfair, it's all just chance. The best way to scroll items doesn't depend on how many scrolls you use in between, just the order you use the scrolls in on that particular item.

You actually have about a one in 36 chance of scrolling a +10 MS shield with straight 70%s, it's just most people aren't ballsy enough to do it >:[

[FelixTM]

I am just a very conflicted man on this subject. Help me. ;_;

I used to be so sure like you guys...but I see the fruits of his extensive work. He even does like hundreds of prelim rounds using a scrollsim... He plans it all out. He frickin' reads the scrolls. I don't even know how to keep scrolling things for an hour just to get one item in the end...

I try justifying it to myself by saying he does it to feel more comfortable about scrolling, because I know people that do that too...but I know he truly believes in his method as improving his chances.

And it does... WHY?!

Dusk, of course that's what your certainty makes you see and think. But spend a day with that man and you begin to doubt THINGS. Start seeing SHADOWS in places...

:(

[Dusk]

Dusk, of course that's what your certainty makes you see and think. But spend a day with that man and you begin to doubt THINGS. Start seeing SHADOWS in places...

:(

No, not the allcaps shadows! :f4:

[DrRusty]

I'm one of the noobs who tries to bait scroll. No one will ever convince me it doesn't work. My 31 int z helm, 33 dex z helm, 66 atk skanda, 2 15 atk scgs, 120 atk dagger, and so on, all keep me wanting to burn before I scroll. All were made on the first try. I can't get consecutive scrolls to keep working, so i try to get the fails on dummy items. Anyone who doesn't bait scroll.... could they tell us how their scrolling has turned out?

[jikos]

I'm one of the noobs who tries to bait scroll. No one will ever convince me it doesn't work. My 31 int z helm, 33 dex z helm, 66 atk skanda, 2 15 atk scgs, 120 atk dagger, and so on, all keep me wanting to burn before I scroll. All were made on the first try. I can't get consecutive scrolls to keep working, so i try to get the fails on dummy items. Anyone who doesn't bait scroll.... could they tell us how their scrolling has turned out?

all first try scrolling no bait scrolling at all:
29dex zhelm (lol notsogood but w/e)
8dex ratface
64att casters
4att 6dex 3 slots pac
16att scg
17dex pants (lvl 35)
for the casters, scg, pac, i scrolled it all at once. no waiting a day for the next scroll. the most was liek 1-2min interval between scroll

the ratface i had at 6dex 1 slot for several days before i found the testicles to 30 it.

for the 17dex pants i did wat you might call some sort of dummy scrolling.
i got an assload of clean pants and 30ed them all, then took the ones with passed scrolls and 30ed them all again, leaving me with 1 7dex 5 slots pants left and landed 5 70s in a row on them.

i never have used the dummy scrolling method and probably never will

[Stereo]

Anyone who doesn't bait scroll.... could they tell us how their scrolling has turned out?

Well, I don't bait scroll because BW scrolls are the cheapest available (what would I do, bait with 1h axe?)

And 30%s weren't out until relatively recently (ie. after I stopped scrolling much)
So I've mostly 60%d
+2/3 Maul
+7/7 Golden Mole
+3/6 The Blessing
+6/7 The Blessing
+6/7 Gigantic Sledge
+5/7 The Morningstar
+7/7 Maple Doomsinger
+3/4 ??? possibly a morningstar
+4/6 ??? I think another Gigantic Sledge
+3/7 Leomite
10/14 scrolls ??? - some Morningstars and a titan
+4/7 Leomite
+4/6 Maple Belzet (1 30% on 1st slot)
+3/7 Dragon Flame

On the 1h BW side of things, I don't really remember in as much detail :x
4/7 Tamus
oddity of 1-2 failures, I don't scroll 1h where my first 60% failed
5/6 lv.80
6/6 Ruin Hammer (these last 2 both had 10/30% 1st slot)


I really don't use expensive scrolls much... I don't think I've scrolled any gloves since my 8 atk Dark Emperor.

I did make 2 +2 30% 8 slot Battle Empresses, out of a total of 3 +1s (first one was sacrificed to an elder god). But I haven't scrolled one and the other turned out trashy (17 dex no slots)
The trouble is my base dex is kinda high so I have no motivation to scroll more dex.

My first dex pants are 3/15 with a slot left. 2nd pair is +1 30% 6 slots, not likely to bother finishing it.

[ArbalistMaster]

Sometimes I get this feeling that some characters are just luckier than others. Maybe he's good with glove atk.

I had a theory about that .... the random seed used is different per each character.

I remember back in beta I got a character to level 58, another to level 35 and a last one to level 25.

with the one I got to 25, I found more drops and scrolls than the other 2 combined

[GummyBear]

If you're looking at per scroll basis, every (60%) scroll has 60% of passing, independant of the previous one, and it will not affect the next one. Scrolls are stateless, thus each one is mutually exclusive to the others.

If you're looking it from a stateful perspective, ie the item, landing 2 60%s consecutively is indeed 36%.

[Jared]

I used to be so sure like you guys...but I see the fruits of his extensive work. He even does like hundreds of prelim rounds using a scrollsim... He plans it all out. He frickin' reads the scrolls. I don't even know how to keep scrolling things for an hour just to get one item in the end...

What is his philosophy behind baiting, exactly?

One of the more common conceptions is that scrolls don't actually run server-side on a percentage rate. Rather, some have the idea that there's a counter which basically keeps track of how many work and how many fail. For example, after six 60% scrolls are passed, the switch goes of saying the next four of them will fail. If you consider it, out of ten, that's still a 60% rate, but in a different context. That's a theory that would make baiting reasonable.

I'm conflicted also and I'm considering baiting. I've noticed significant gains on my scrolling at night when there aren't many players online. Recently, I scrolled a 10 ATT glove, using all the scrolls in immediate succession, and, just before that, a 64 ATT Dragon Sleeve with the same immediate succession of scrolls.

However, it seems whenever I scroll during the busier hours of the day my scrolling goes back. I passed two 60%s on another Dragon Sleeve scrolled at around 4 PM EST, whereas my first one was done around 3 AM a week or so prior. The idea of a counter on the backend of the server is feasible to me considering my experience.

And like I said, if that's the case, saying a 60% scroll has a sixty percent passing rate is still technically right considering the context in which it's used. If six out of ten of those scrolls pass throughout the entirety of the server, it's in fact a sixty percent rate.

[RajPwN]

Sometimes I get this feeling that some characters are just luckier than others.

Yeah same here.. I've never scrolled anything good in gMS. Except for 1 30%, 1 70% on a Zhelm. Rofl. And that was after blowing 3 helms ALL with the first 70%. But then again, I scrolled a 20 DEX 6 Slot Bathrobe in a Private Server among many other good items. Although I did pass TT 30 on my first try..

[FantaTwist]

i failed 6 lol, my leader kept giving me them ;-;

[RoxStarz]

I think one thing some of you are missing about "dummy scrolling" is this. Nobody's going to dummy scroll a clean item. If you are working on an awesome Maple Shield is it safe for me to assume you already got 3 scrolls to work on it? Once a scroll has passed its out of the equation. So you might have failed 20 items and come up with three that "your working on." One or two of those get better through dummy scrolling and now its something you swear by.

In other words, I don't think it is a proper scientific evaluation of the subject unless you take into consideration all factors including the number of items you failed on the first attempt.

[D3ath]

I laugh at how the topic starts with TT30 then it becomes a debate whether dummy baiting actually helps.
Anyhow, my opinion is somewhat similar to Jaruddd's. I believe there's a whole system behind the scrolling, where the server takes count and what now. So, it may not seem like 60% for you, but if you added up all of the scrolls working compared to the scrolls used, it's 60% (This is my opinion of how it works, btw).

I've been having some luck with 10% and sucking at 30% lately too D;
I used a 10% Earring INT on an earring, and it works. Then I used a 10% Glove ATT after using 2 30% Cape LUK and it works.
I also used a 10% Dagger ATT on a Wagner (This is a PS experience) and it also works. All on the first slot x.x

Oh, sorry for necroposting too x.x Didn't see the date.

[Kabanaw]

Well, since this is bumped anyways, I might as well post.

I don't think that there's any sort of overall server 60% working, I think it's just luck. Besides, if you really think about it, you'd be better off scrolling during the day; if there's 1000 scrolls being used, 600 will work and 400 will fail, while if there's 100 60 will work and 40 will fail.

I think what happens when you use a scroll is either the client or server chooses a random number from 1-100. If it's less than 60, it works. Greater, it fails. That's it.

I've scrolled a 12 MA/ 5 INT fallen leaf earring with 5 consecutive 60%s. The next day I got two to work on my PuAC.

The character luck thing I might agree with. I've blown up 3 capes with 70%s. :f7:

[Jared]

I don't think that there's any sort of overall server 60% working, I think it's just luck. Besides, if you really think about it, you'd be better off scrolling during the day; if there's 1000 scrolls being used, 600 will work and 400 will fail, while if there's 100 60 will work and 40 will fail.

This is what makes my theory solid. The idea is that the server has a ticker on it, and every time a certain kind of scroll passes, the server keeps count. After six 60% scrolls pass, it allows the next four consecutive 60% scrolls to fail. This would, by technicality, make them pass on a 60% success rate, but instead of putting more load on the servers to make them do random calculations.

If you scroll in the day, then, it would be more luck than statistic. If you think about it, the counter on the server would be changing far quicker than at the non-peak hours. More people are online during the afternoon hours, meaning more scrolls are being used, thus making the ticker on the backend progress more rapidly. This would raise the "luck" factor of it.

However, in nighttime hours where the servers are desolate, the counter would, obviously, progress much slower. This makes burn scrolling effective. You find the sweet spot where you've exhausted the failures and then continue to make use of the server's passing slots.

It's all in the wording, and if anything, it would explain the crazy outcomes burn-scrollers are able to achieve. I can attest to this also, as every single +6 or better equip I've ever scrolled as at night. Yes, that's a bit of a blind statement to make, but whenever I scroll in rapid succession during peak hours, my successes are spread far apart comparatively.

[RoxStarz]

This is what makes my theory solid. The idea is that the server has a ticker on it, and every time a certain kind of scroll passes, the server keeps count. After six 60% scrolls pass, it allows the next four consecutive 60% scrolls to fail. This would, by technicality, make them pass on a 60% success rate, but instead of putting more load on the servers to make them do random calculations.

If you scroll in the day, then, it would be more luck than statistic. If you think about it, the counter on the server would be changing far quicker than at the non-peak hours. More people are online during the afternoon hours, meaning more scrolls are being used, thus making the ticker on the backend progress more rapidly. This would raise the "luck" factor of it.

However, in nighttime hours where the servers are desolate, the counter would, obviously, progress much slower. This makes burn scrolling effective. You find the sweet spot where you've exhausted the failures and then continue to make use of the server's passing slots.

It's all in the wording, and if anything, it would explain the crazy outcomes burn-scrollers are able to achieve. I can attest to this also, as every single +6 or better equip I've ever scrolled as at night. Yes, that's a bit of a blind statement to make, but whenever I scroll in rapid succession during peak hours, my successes are spread far apart comparatively.

I think you are seeing Shadows. You should go roll two dice ten million times and write down the result. I can already tell you to within less than +/1 10 the number of times you will roll each number. That is how consistent the law of averages is. I don't know if it is understood how it works, but it does work. Nexon doesn't need a special "clicker" to keep track of what passed and what failed. The law of averages averages it out for them regardless.

[Dusk]

-sigh- Burn scrollers are using more scrolls. There is no sleight-of-hand, no hidden server ticker, no voodoo magic, nothing. When you use a scroll the server applies a pseudorandom formula to a seed that is changing many times a second and spits out a result, upon which it decides what your scroll does. There are plenty of people who don't burn scroll and get lucky as well. Stop your superstitious crap.

[Jared]

So you're insinuating that you know everything about Nexon's backend for their servers, and how the content is hosted and implemented?

No? Then don't be so quick to dismiss. You can pan all you want, but fact of the matter is that you don't know any better than the superstitious.

[noctourne]

Actually the non-independent randoming method someone mentioned earlier in this thread is called pseudo-randoming.

Truly random numbers come from sources like radiation and environment white noise, etc etc

A lot of computer software, including games, often use pseudo algorithms to generate random numbers, and it works just by increasing probability after failures.

Obviously the problem is no one really knows how Nexon implements the code for scrolling, so all this talk about "independent events" is useless. However, its fairly unlikely it would be affected by dummy scrolling.

[Stereo]

and it works just by increasing probability after failures.

No, it doesn't. Pseudo-random generators just use hash methods that are most evenly distributed, so they'll always have the same probability no matter what happened previously. The only way to predict what they'll do is to perfectly imitate the system & input they're getting, and run the algorithm yourself. Since you don't know what algorithm nexon uses, what it's being used for (just scrolls, scrolls of a specific type, scrolls on only 1 channel, etc.) you have very little chance of successfully predicting what will happen.

Working in some sort of "if you fail 6 times, next is more likely to work" would be way more complicated than the simple "generate a random number every time".

[noctourne]

I probably got the term wrong, but some games are like that

Its not really that complicated to do either, say if something is supposed to have 20% chance of occurring

First hit would be 5.5%, and each consecutive hit would increase by 5.5%, this eventually leads to something close to 20% overall

Of course everything is just speculation...some people think dummy scrolling works...maybe it does..

[Kabanaw]

I just used 5 60% scrolls on my Maple Asura after pasing 2 40%s. 3/5 worked. EG, 60% worked.

You can speculate all you want about it, but in the end, the end result will always be a bell curve. Fantastic and crappy scrolling on the edges, and decent items in the middle.

[kingdj333]

Well I passed (4) 40% anvir scrolls and than (2) 60% scrolls and got a 52 atk skanda! <3 *sold it for 200mil*
Than I scrolled another skanda and (4) 40% anvir scrolls worked and than (1) 60% scroll worked and got a 50 atk skanda <3

Anyways I think it's all about luck... Maple doesnt actually go with that 60% bullshit.. *I dont think so*

[MasPan]

-sigh- Burn scrollers are using more scrolls. There is no sleight-of-hand, no hidden server ticker, no voodoo magic, nothing. When you use a scroll the server applies a pseudorandom formula to a seed that is changing many times a second and spits out a result, upon which it decides what your scroll does. There are plenty of people who don't burn scroll and get lucky as well. Stop your superstitious crap.

Cue my 15 str Ludi cape, no scrolls burned, all 30s used.

[Russt]

Why has this been continually bumped from February?


I think you are seeing Shadows. You should go roll two dice ten million times and write down the result. I can already tell you to within less than +/1 10 the number of times you will roll each number. That is how consistent the law of averages is. I don't know if it is understood how it works, but it does work. Nexon doesn't need a special "clicker" to keep track of what passed and what failed. The law of averages averages it out for them regardless.
The "Law of Averages" is a myth.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-myth-of-the-law-of-averages/
http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_rwalk.wasp
http://www.probabilitytheory.info/topics/the_law_of_large_numbers.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

That dealt with, it is possible that MS's server keeps a count of successes and failures. But there's no reason to. Having the server increment a count every time someone scrolls something or kills a monster or plays Gach and keep track of all that stuff without breaking? Nah. Much simpler to just times-2147483-plus-101-take-the-remainder.

[GummyBear]

But but but.....

You're breaking my heart........

I hate jooooo............................

On a more serious note, the problem with this is how we perceive things vs how the server perceive things. What does that mean? Well, the server is pretty much stateless in which the law of averages has no footing, whereas when we scrolls, we keep track of passed/failed records, thus we're trying to talk to a deaf person.

[RoxStarzzz]

Why has this been continually bumped from February?


The "Law of Averages" is a myth.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-myth-of-the-law-of-averages/
http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_rwalk.wasp
http://www.probabilitytheory.info/topics/the_law_of_large_numbers.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

That dealt with, it is possible that MS's server keeps a count of successes and failures. But there's no reason to. Having the server increment a count every time someone scrolls something or kills a monster or plays Gach and keep track of all that stuff without breaking? Nah. Much simpler to just times-2147483-plus-101-take-the-remainder.

Well, I agree with you and disagree with you. I agree that I used the wrong term, I should have used the term "The Law of Large Numbers" as that describes what I am talking about. Nexon doesn't have to "keep track" of anything, the natural law of Large Numbers will assure that 60% of the 60% scrolls work and that 30% of the 30% scrolls work.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

[NickSwift]

I seem to pass all the cheap books first time round, and the expensive ones fail several times... I think nexon is hoping I'll run out of money and buy NX to get more mesos or something...