30% Scrolls-For better or worse?

[NoWaizMatt]

Well, I have realized over time, that 30% scrolls really suck. I've blown maybe 7+ MS Shields with them, trying to scroll something. It seems that whenever it fails, it explodes your item. Let's look at something.

When you add up all the %s, you get 200% in all. 70% chance of failing, and then another 50% chance of exploding. So if you have a 30% scroll, then there is a 120/200, or 3/5ths chance of you getting screwed. There is the same chance that it will just remove a slot, and a measly 1/3ths chance (roughly) that your scroll will do what you hoped it would. So if you really look at it, 30% scrolls aren't really the best option unless you have a lot of money to blow.

An example of the odds would be, say your scrolling a hat with 30% scrolls. Of three of the five scrolls, you will either fail and lose a slot, or the item will explode. With only 1.5 scrolls (not possible, but meh) you have a chance of success. Which means, unless you are super lucky, you are gonna explode your item, or end up with something horrible.

[Russt]

I don't quite understand your math there...

Anyway, 30% > 10% for all purposes except whiting.

[»-Chris->]

That's why you only do a few with 30%... Not that hard to land 2~3.

[Riyuran]

When you add up all the %s, you get 200% in all. 70% chance of failing, and then another 50% chance of exploding. So if you have a 30% scroll, then there is a 120/200, or 3/5ths chance of you getting screwed. There is the same chance that it will just remove a slot, and a measly 1/3ths chance (roughly) that your scroll will do what you hoped it would. So if you really look at it, 30% scrolls aren't really the best option unless you have a lot of money to blow.

An example of the odds would be, say your scrolling a hat with 30% scrolls. Of three of the five scrolls, you will either fail and lose a slot, or the item will explode. With only 1.5 scrolls (not possible, but meh) you have a chance of success. Which means, unless you are super lucky, you are gonna explode your item, or end up with something horrible.

Umm...your math is weird...how did you get 200% in all? There's one scroll and if you use it, there's an 100% chance that one of the three options will happen...not 200% :f6:
30% chance of working. 70% chance of failing.
if it fails, [70%], then there's a 50% chance it breaks.
70% * 50% = 35% of breaking
So...30% work, 35% fail and break, 35% fail and not break.

[DumbApples]

You said 1/3 chance of actually working,boosting it to 33% chance of not failing:f6:

[Hero]

Too much text. Click, drag and let it go and hope for the best. All there is to it. :f3:

[NoWaizMatt]

By 200% I mean there is 200% of %s itself in the scroll (50+50+70+30) =\

[DumbApples]

By 200% I mean there is 200% of %s itself in the scroll (50+50+70+30) =\
If you divided that equally(excellent:f2:)

-35% of the following possibilities:
-25%destroy
-25%lose a slot for nothing

-15% of actually working

=Total possibilties(100% where if not divided 200%)


P.S. I think I spelled 'possibilites' wrong:redface:

[»-Chris->]

Sorry, don't quite understand above...
It'd be 30% work, 35% fail, 35% BOOM!

[DumbApples]

Sorry, don't quite understand above...
It'd be 30% work, 35% fail, 35% BOOM!
Im just dividing the 200% the TS got in half.:redface:

[Germ]

It either works or it doesn't. Who cares about the numbers? /end thread.

[Bacon]

The whole point of Dark Scrolls is to put your items at a risk. Sure, it's great to have a higher percentage for a scrolls success, but the dark scrolls add a negative side to it. There is no "better or worse". You have a better chance for the scroll working, but you sacrifice that for the potential of the item breaking. Gain a little, lose a little.

Great, you can come up with exact percents, but that does nothing when you're actually scrolling. Just slap it on and hope it works. There isn't really anything else to discuss.

[Retalion]

The way I look at it, 30% = 3x 10%, hence 30%s have 3 times the chance of working.

There are pros and cons to everything and for me...

Pros = higher chance of working (good for scrolling somewhat cheap items en mass)

Cons = ability to break (making it costly if you're not rich and are trying to scroll things that cost a lot in a clean state)

[Holypie]

umm you're maths are flawed TS. if you roll a 100 sided die, and need 30 or less to land a scroll then it's: 30% to work and 70% to fail. then you have another dice roll if it lands on 30 or higher. this one is less than 50=use a slot, more than 50=bye bye item. that all happens in a split second and that's how it works

[loddlaen]

umm you're maths are flawed TS. if you roll a 100 sided die, and need 30 or less to land a scroll then it's: 30% to work and 70% to fail. then you have another dice roll if it lands on 30 or higher. this one is less than 50=use a slot, more than 50=bye bye item. that all happens in a split second and that's how it works

Why use a 2nd dice?

A 100 sided dice:
1-30 = Work
31 - 65 = Fail no break
66 - 100 = BOOOOM

Simple as that.

[WiseAlon32]

god, what's so hard to understand?
the 50% of failing isnt 50% of the total 100%, its 50% of the failure rate only which is 70% (cuz it works 30% of the time).
therefore, there is a 35% chance for the item to be destroyed and 35% for the scroll to fail w/o destroying the item.
same goes with 70% scrolls, they have 70% scucces rate and 30% failure rate, which means 15% of the 30% will destroy ur item while the other 15% will only fail the scroll.

try to not look at it as 50% but as a half.

[Harrisonized]

Adding up all the screenshots I have taken of my scrollings, I end up with this:
30% statistics
Work: 60
Fail: 23+
Break: 19+

The 23+ and 19+ means that there are many undocumented issues. For example, if a scroll fails or breaks on the first slot, then I won't take SS of it.
Which means that in reality, I probably have an equal number of all of them. Which means, your math is really screwy.

[Retalion]

Adding up all the screenshots I have taken of my scrollings, I end up with this:
30% statistics
Work: 60
Fail: 23+
Break: 19+

The 23+ and 19+ means that there are many undocumented issues. For example, if a scroll fails or breaks on the first slot, then I won't take SS of it.
Which means that in reality, I probably have an equal number of all of them. Which means, your math is really screwy.

I've used 43 30% scrolls.

3 worked
40 failed/broke

Something doesnt seem right here...

[srevwetv]

In one of those things you're not supposed to mention where I waste precious time not playing GMS, I used 300 30% scrolls on over 100 MS Shields, and broke every single one.

</3 30% scrolls

[Chompy]

I've used 43 30% scrolls.

3 worked
40 failed/broke

Something doesnt seem right here...

No it is VERY likely that you could fail dozens of less then 50% scrolls.
If 100 30%s do not work.
# 101 STILL has a 70% or a majority chance of failing.
Infact it has a greater chance of BOOM than working.
Probability stands independent of itself (right? Right!)

[Harrisonized]

I've used 43 30% scrolls.

3 worked
40 failed/broke

Something doesnt seem right here...
LoL Jackk. Are you counting the ones that worked before the item broke?
(IE: 30% pass 30% pass 30% broke)
Or are you disregarding the passing scrolls completely? 0.o
Also, when counting dark scrolls, you should count the ones that fail no break as well.


Probability stands independent of itself (right? Right!)
Not really, although the larger the set, the closer it will be to the probabilities. That's why the law of averages applies when you're hunting for a certain item.

[Retalion]

The 3 30's I got to work:

30% xbow on a gold crow with 6 slots. Boom'd right after that.

2 straight 30% bows to work on a fire arund then 2 more failed, and I 60'd the rest to get <some> money back on it.

I basically just know 40 30% scrolls didnt work. I never kept track of how many broke things though (On the other hand, my sister is 13/14 with 30's and once on Tespia, I got 8 straight 10's to work).

I realize that each scroll has a 30% chance of working and that they're all independent on each other but you'd think I'd be luckier than getting under 10% of my 30's to work. I mean, with those rates, i was better off using 10%'s...

Hopefully the law of averages hold up. With this many failures, Im bound to get a 21 atk bwg without having to glitch sooner or later! >_>

[Harrisonized]

I basically just know 40 30% scrolls didnt work. I never kept track of how many broke things though (On the other hand, my sister is 13/14 with 30's and once on Tespia, I got 8 straight 10's to work).

I realize that each scroll has a 30% chance of working and that they're all independent on each other but you'd think I'd be luckier than getting under 10% of my 30's to work. I mean, with those rates, i was better off using 10%'s...

Hopefully the law of averages hold up. With this many failures, Im bound to get a 21 atk bwg without having to glitch sooner or later! >_>
Hmm...
Where to start...
Before I tallied up all my scrollings, I used to think that my 70%'s only worked 40% of the time, broke 40% of the time, and only fail no break 20% of the time. After I tallied it up, I realized that the 70%s actually worked 77% of the time.
Here's my documented record:
10% ~ 5 pass, 4+ fail
30% ~ 60 pass, 23+ fail, 19+ fail
60% ~ 36 pass, 37+ fail
70% ~ 99 pass, 13+ fail, 16 break

The + means that I'm uncertain of the undocumented ones.

The law of averages can be used, because although all probabilities are independent, why not just say that since we most likely won't find an ilbi, we won't find it? People will hunt monsters because when counting the success rate, you multiply the failure rate together and subtract that from one. For example, the chance that you'll find an ilbi after 20,000 spiders (which is the droprate btw) is 1 - (1-0.00005)^20,000 which is a 63% chance after killing 20K spiders.
I hope I'm making sense.
Subtract the failure rate is what I mean.

[Taiketo]

30%'s fail but don't break way to often, forcing me to waste another scroll to break the item.

:(

[LakeMyst]

You can't have more than 100% chance total. That just defies the laws of everything. For the record, here is my scrolling record (I may have a few that haven't been recorded but this is most of my scrolling record for the past 3 years):

10% - 26 total - 3 pass (11.54%), 23 fail (88.46%)
30% - 68 total - 17 pass (25.00%) 29 fail (42.65%) 22 break (32.35%)
60% - 83 total - 52 pass (62.65%) 31 fail (37.35%)
70% - 28 total - 21 pass (75.00%) 1 fail (3.57%) 6 break (21.43%)
100% - ALL PASSED HOLY CRAP

The expected numbers are:

10% - 10% pass 90% fail (duh)
30% - 30% pass 35% fail 35% break
60% - 60% pass 40% fail
70% - 70% pass 15% fail 15% break

Most of my numbers are pretty close to the expected numbers. The only things I would question are my abnormally high fail rate of 30%s and my abnormally low fail rate of my 70%s. It seems that every time a 70% fails, it breaks. All of these things can be attributed to random chance, though, and I really haven't used enough scrolls to make any wild claims. So in conclusion, I trust Nexon did not screw up their math and all scrolls work as they should. Yes, 30%s are dangerous to use. But they can be rewarding.

Harrisonized, your tallying is really messed up, sorry :( 23+ isn't a very specific number, it makes it look like you have more passes.

[Harrisonized]

Harrisonized, your tallying is really messed up, sorry :( 23+ isn't a very specific number, it makes it look like you have more passes.
The + means there's more. I don't document it if it fails or breaks on the first slot. I always start counting when I get a scroll to pass on the item. That means that there are 30%s that broke first slot or 10% that fail no break first slots that I didn't account for, but the passes, I am certain that's all of them. LoL.

[LakeMyst]

The + means there's more. I don't document it if it fails or breaks on the first slot. I always start counting when I get a scroll to pass on the item. That means that there are 30%s that broke first slot or 10% that fail no break first slots that I didn't account for, but the passes, I am certain that's all of them. LoL.
Yeah, I read what you posted and I know there's more, I'm just saying it'd be more useful information if you documented everything.

[WillDaSnail]

Here's my opinion on this issue:

I'd say 30%'s make it or break even for you (70%'s are just scrolls literally from the devil because simply they're not worth it). Literally, that scroll works wonders for me during my scrolling career (helped me scroll my really good weapons that I used), and also has its share of keeping me on a 4-Codar blowing streak. (still need to break that >_>)

Here's some of my scrolling projects working with 30%'s:

http://i150.photobucket.com/albums/s105/WillDaSnail/FailedMagicodar.jpg

http://i150.photobucket.com/albums/s105/WillDaSnail/NewWand.jpg

http://i150.photobucket.com/albums/s105/WillDaSnail/Maple0677.jpg

(Got a 30% to work on the 3rd slot after 2 60%'s worked before...amazing lol)

http://i150.photobucket.com/albums/s105/WillDaSnail/Maple0676.jpg

(Scrolling my DR....Paul [the admin of this site, back in his younger days] provided me with his scrolls he got off Gacha a long while ago. Sadly, his scrolls blew this up afterwards as you can see by the 70% that is in my inventory....xD)

Well that's what I have now. The only missing SS Im trying to find is my 2nd DR I scrolled successfully, a 105/7/1 (yes, a 30% on 1st slot). But for now, enjoy. The point Im trying to prove here (again) is that 30% can help you scroll really good things, but can also break even for you if things blow up through 30% scrolls. Sort of a 50-50 chance eh?